Posted on 01/11/2004 8:00:18 AM PST by harpu
WASHINGTON – Rep. Jim Turner's retirement is the first in a series of blows House Democrats can expect this year. The East Texan's decision to avoid a hopeless re-election contest will leave the party without its leading voice on homeland security.
But it also represents a major step toward a GOP goal in redistricting – pushing the Democratic Party to the left by forcing out its most effective moderate voices.
Rockwall Rep. Ralph Hall's defection to the GOP this month broke a 130-year Democratic hold on the Texas delegation to Congress, creating a 16-16 tie. With just four more casualties in November, the House would end up with fewer Democrats from Texas than from Massachusetts, and most of those leaving are moderates, fiscal conservatives and defense hawks.
The result is not just a stronger GOP majority controlled by Majority Leader Tom DeLay but an opposition dominated by Californians and New Yorkers a geographic and ideological transformation.
"You've got this very polarized House leadership on both sides, and as Texas becomes more Republican, the Democrats nationally are weakened," said Rice University political scientist Earl Black. "There are very few conservative Democrats left in the House from anywhere."
Mr. Turner of Crockett has been a leader in the Blue Dog coalition, the mostly Southern white Democrats who've tried for years to counteract their party's leftward drift.
Other Blue Dog leaders, such as Charlie Stenholm of Abilene, ranking Democrat on the Agriculture Committee, also face dim prospects. Mr. Stenholm is among the half-dozen incumbent Texans who must choose their poison in the next few days, trying to pick which of the long-shot districts the Republicans provided would allow the best chances of survival.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who assigned Mr. Turner as the top Democrat on the House Homeland panel last year, called his retirement a "great loss to the Congress," and a "striking example of how the Republicans' shameful partisan redistricting in Texas will have serious consequences for the entire nation."
Mr. Hall's defection was somewhat less shocking. Congressional Quarterly's annual evaluation of votes found that he sided with President Bush 85 percent of the time, by far the most of any Democrat.
Mr. Stenholm came in fifth, at 67 percent. But don't look for him to switch teams after a quarter-century in Congress.
"With what the other side did to West Texas, I don't see how anybody justifies switching parties right now," he said, adding that he was "extremely" disappointed in Mr. Hall, a longtime friend for whom he has stumped for lieutenant governor and Congress.
Before the defection, he said, Mr. Hall confided that he was "very upset" about the way Republicans carved up rural Texas. "How can people be upset by this and then join the people that did it?"
Where will Frost run?
In the Dallas area, all eyes are on Martin Frost this week. The 25-year House veteran has until Friday to decide which of four heavily GOP districts to run in, but he's held off, saying he wants to see Republicans sweat a bit before he launches his $3 million blitz. Under the new map, Mr. Frost's Arlington home is in the district held by Rep. Joe Barton, R-Ennis. His own 24th District has been transformed into a GOP stronghold tailored to elect state Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Dallas, says he's not worried.
Then there's freshman Rep. Michael Burgess, the Highland Village obstetrician who marked his first anniversary in Congress last Wednesday. He's girding for trouble, and unlike his colleagues he isn't issuing taunts. Nor does he say he could match Mr. Frost dollar-for-dollar.
But he noted that he won the 2002 GOP nomination after being outspent 5-1 – by an opponent whose father was the outgoing House majority leader, Dick Armey.
And the newly configured district clearly favors him, even with the addition of southeast Fort Worth black voters long represented by Mr. Frost.
"There are some significant challenges, but they've had pretty much the same representation for the last 25 years, and I don't see it's done them much good," Dr. Burgess said. And when it comes to the conservative and most populous heart of the district, "Martin Frost doesn't belong in Denton County. He knows it, and I know it."
Todd J. Gillman covers Congress and the Texas delegation.
| Rank | Location | Receipts | Donors/Avg | Freepers/Avg | Monthlies | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | West Virginia | 10.00 |
1 |
10.00 |
69 |
0.14 |
30.00 |
2 |
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He could spend $30 million and it wouldn't help. The map had, as it's #1 priority, making it impossible for Martin Frost to win any district.
Before the Dallas Morning News sheds any more tears for the centrist Democrats who will not be returning to Washington next year, they should be reminded that Martin Frost's ACU rating was a 4. It's almost impossible to be more liberal than that.
"You've got this very polarized House leadership on both sides, and as Texas becomes more Republican, the Democrats nationally are weakened," said Rice University political scientist Earl Black. "There are very few conservative Democrats left in the House from anywhere."
That's the whole story, in one sentence.
They'll tell you how Stenholm votes with Bush comparatively often, but they don't mention how low a rating the American Conservative Union gives Stenholm - just 50% last year.
He's no Conservative!
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