Issues 2004 -- Credit Bubble Bulletin by Doug Noland

PrudentBear.com ^ | 1/9/04 | Doug Noland

[Beck_isright]

"This current economy is a rising tidal wave that will push the Republicans for another 60 years of power, and finish destroying the liberal left."

Sigh. We haven't learned a damned thing in the last 16 years.

[Beck_isright]

Which is why I predict, still a great 2004. Go long (no more than 3-6 months) on those "hot" fashionable issues. But take your profits and buy hardened assets. The results in 2005 will horrify most individuals. We are going to witness a disaster of unbelievable proportions.

[arete]

Actually, I'm talking about how the dumb serfs never understand that they are being fleeced and robbed blind by both political parties. The funniest part is watching the party loyalists gleefully having their pockets picked as long as it is "their guy" who is doing it.

Richard W.

[arete]

Sigh. We haven't learned a damned thing in the last 16 years.

No one has ever lost a dime underestimating the intelligence of the American public.

Richard W.

[TommyDale]

This piece reminds me of the government brochure that was published in the 1950's called "Loose Talk Sells No Hot Dogs".

[arete]

So I take it that you are calling for a spike down in the natural gas market in the next few weeks based on what will be greater gas in storage. How about longer term into the peak electrical demand months this summer?

Richard W.

[Beck_isright]

"No one has ever lost a dime underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

Isn't that the truth. The "Republicans" we now all are alleged to worship are the equalivent of the 1960's democrats. The democrats of today are the equal of the 1930's socialists. It's amazing to me that anyone thinks that we are enjoying a "conservative" period in American history.

[AmericanVictory]

And here all the planners were counting on cheap, clean natural gas.

[AmericanVictory]

What energy policy?

[AmericanVictory]

January 7 – Financial Times: “China yesterday announced the launch of an aggressive programme to recapitalize the country’s insolvent state banks, injecting $45 bn from its vast foreign exchange reserves into two large institutions that are preparing for a stock market listing next year… The CCB (China Construction Bank) and BoC (Bank of China), both of which hope to list on the Hong Kong stock market in 2005, plan to use the injection to boost their levels of capital, not to write off bad loans. Their aim is to generate more income from an expanded loan portfolio and attract foreign strategic investors more easily

Smells a lot like deception and cover-up. It's in all likelihood at least twice that. Bet we don't see much transparency and bet we don't see any change in party officials deciding who gets loans.

[redhead]

"If you shop at Albertsons in the Fort Worth area, their prices TODAY for loaves of packaged white bread range from 89 cents to 2.79. Packaged multi-grain bread goes from 1.50 to 2.89."

Maybe because people aren't buying so much bread any more, since the medical establishment has admitted that a low-carb diet is healthier than one loaded with bread, pasta, and pastries?

[SAJ]

Heating demand outweighs cooling demand by a considerable factor, year on year. I can get the figure for you if you like. Plus, heating demand is much more immediate than cooling demand; you'll swelter for a day or three with little complaint if the a/c is out, but the same is NOT true in the wintertime if the heating goes out, true?

Electrical demand is a little volatile regarding NG, but, again, nothing like heating demand. The switchability of combined-cycle plants devolatilises summer electric to a fair degree. As far as that goes, a simple look at price histories will show you exactly where the volatility of price occurs.

Now, long-term, I'm a huge bull on NG. The exhaustion curves of many new wells are substantially higher than those of many of their predecessors. And, even though the rig count is high and rising, the fact of the matter is that the US, courtesy of the environazis for the most part, has put two of the largest gas fields utterly off limits to production. This is, of course, insanity -- but one has to trade the mkt as it is, not as one would like it to be. Demand, of whatever type, is going to continue to rise, and until such time as we keep pace in supply -- which we CAN do, although it'll be difficult -- the upward pressure on NG pricing will NOT be compensated by demand destruction caused by the higher prices.

[jpsb]

I live south of Houston and I just said screw and turned off the gas. If I get cold I use the fire place. This week has been kinda cold in the 40's. Now Maggie, my Newfoundland dog, is having a wonderful time.

I also don't brother to use the AC in the summer. Maggie hates that.

[sarcasm]

It was one above zero in New York this morning.

[BOBTHENAILER]

Hey Arete, stuff fluctuates!!! Just like politics!!! And some of it stinks, too!!! Git over it!!! Just grin and bare it!!! Don't stroke out over it!!! Life's too short already!!!

Catch it while you can,
Catch it while you caa-aaaan.
I'm a solitary man!!!!!!!!!

[Orangedog]

If CFC's deplete the ozone, cause global warming and give me 60 degree days in Ohio during January, then give me a can of freon and let me do my part! I hate winter.

[jpsb]

Well then I think you'd better keep the heat on cause it sounds like the hawk is out tonight.

[arete]

Smells a lot like deception and cover-up. It's in all likelihood at least twice that.

Heck, the same thing has been going on in Japan for years. The government just changes the rules and lets the banks value their inventment and loan portfolios at whatever they want. All governments now support and facilitate corruption. It is right out in the open but who is going to demand an accounting? Our own FED (privately owned) cannot be legally audited and is not accountable to the citizens. GET THAT -- the most powerful financial institution in the world and responsible for our economy and the protection of our currency, is PRIVATELY OWNED and NOT ACCOUNTABLE TO THE CITIZENS. Yeah, like do actually believe that the FED is going to act in your interests or will act to protect the Wall Street bankers when push comes to shove.

Richard W.

[jpsb]

By the way to you have any idea on what this article was about? It was all goggbuly gook to me. Is there a credit bubble? and is it about to burst and if so was does that mean?

[arete]

Did you happen to read this interview and if you did, could you give me your opinion? I would appreciate it.

An Interview with Andrew Weissman

Richard W.