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To: GodBlessRonaldReagan
I should have said mathematically stupid/ignorant. You need not be stupid to play the lottery. Apologies.
32 posted on 01/08/2004 10:14:14 AM PST by GodBlessRonaldReagan (where is Count Petofi when we need him most?)
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To: GodBlessRonaldReagan
You are willing to pay more for fire insurance on your house than is statistically justified by the small liklihood of having your house burn down.

And people are willing to pay more for a lottery ticket than is statistically justified by the small liklihood of getting rich.

It's a psychological quirk of human nature.

76 posted on 01/08/2004 10:41:36 AM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion (Belief in your own objectivity is the essence of subjectivity.)
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To: GodBlessRonaldReagan
I should have said mathematically stupid/ignorant. You need not be stupid to play the lottery.

It is possible to play the lottery smartly. If the payout is high enough, the expectation value of a $1 play actually rises above $1. At that point it's an investment, albeit a very high-risk one.

If Powerball goes above $100 million, I put $5 on it. If it goes above $200 million, I put $10 on it. If it goes above $300 million, I put $15 on it, and so on.

Another consideration is that winning a large lottery is qualitatively different from winning a substantial amount of money in, say, a casino. If I won $10,000, or even $100,000, playing craps, it wouldn't make a huge difference in how I live my life. $100 million, however, is out-of-band. It lies above the phase transition between wealth and power. A single dollar among $100 million may technically be worth the same as any dollar bill, but it can do so much more. That additional worth isn't reflected in the expectation value, however.

89 posted on 01/08/2004 10:52:49 AM PST by Physicist
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