Pretty correct. China will follow a path of using economic and military muscle, but it won't be a brash kinda dumb bully like the Soviet union. The chinese are perfectly willing to wait a few generations and slowly move forward. Militarily they may not be a threat for a few decades. H***, in terms of naval power, we can take on the entire world -- we've got 13 aircraft carrier groups, the rest of the world has what, 12? And mostly aging, tiny fleets. China is a land power primarily and has always been. In terms of naval power, the Indians won't let them into the Indian Ocean which they consider to be theirsphere of influence while the Australians consider the Asian side of the Pacific to be their own playground. The North-western pacific is Japanese-American.
The Chinese navy is only good enough for sabre-rattling against Taiwan, though by the end of the decade it may be strong enough to invade Taiwan. China may never be a significant naval power, but remember that the Romans didn't have much of a navy compared to Carthage either so the Romans used their army pwoer -- tossing bridges from deck to deck and then sending troops across to do what Romans did best -- hand to hand combat.
The Chinese are not Romans. They are not going to win a battle for the Taiwan strait with grappling hooks and boarding parties.
They want a navy big enough to defeat Taiwan if we don't show up. That is what it is for. If it was also the equal of India's or Japan's, they would count themselves one of the major regional players off their landmass as well as one it. That is clearly what they are after.
They do not remotely have the base or the ability to challenge even one of those yet, let alone all of them, united and led by us. We could blow all four out of the water tomorrow without breaking a sweat. And that is not going to change, not even in 10-20 years.
What might change is US willingness to endanger trade with China, or go to war over Taiwan. That and a navy big enough to intimidate Taiwan is the obvious ambition behind it.
They might even be stupid enough to take on the USN, even if they think we will show - though the most likely way a clash might arise is if they think we won't, but are wrong. If a clash does arise, however, with the USN involved, the Chinese navy will be about as effective against our stuff as Iraqi armor was against M-1s and JDAMs.