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The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

Posted on 01/06/2004 9:05:14 AM PST by Jeff Head

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
By Jeff Head, January 2004

In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.

The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.

In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.

While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.

The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.


The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters


The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.


Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)


The Red Chinese J-10

But do the Chinese intend to do this?

That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.

The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!

The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.

The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.


A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou

To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.


The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer


The second Guanghou destroyer being built

In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.


The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate

In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.

Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.


Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction

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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: armsbuildup; asia; authorjeffhead; china; chinesemilitary; jeffhead; miltech; plan; powerprojection; redchinathreat; usnavy; westernpacific
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To: sonofatpatcher2
LOL! Well, you are right and there's nothing left to say about it. Thanks for the advise.
121 posted on 01/08/2004 2:31:48 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
LOL! Well, you are right and there's nothing left to say about it. Thanks for the advise.

Given the topic of discussion in your post, the last word is unintentionally funny.

122 posted on 01/08/2004 2:39:17 PM PST by Poohbah ("Beware the fury of a patient man" -- John Dryden)
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To: ModelBreaker; Jeff Head
If they actually start building carriers, wouldn't this suggest that they believe they can neutralize our stealth technology?

Heck, the Serbs had a way around our stealth technology. The way regular radar works is by emitting radio waves, and seeing if any are reflected back by a flying object. The way stealth works is by having the plane absorb most of the radar waves, and reflecting the rest in directions other than back to the radar receiver.

The problem with stealth is that you are not truly invisible, just "radar black". If you get BETWEEN a radio transmitter and a sophisticated receiver, you cast a shadow (this is why the US spent some time at the beginning of Iraq II to take out cell towers and other microwave radio sources). To determine where you are, the other side needs to have sophisticated electronics and good computers that can handle signal processing tasks. The Chinese are investing heavily in electronics technology.

If we belatedly discover the Chinese have developed a good way to put any stealth aircraft between a bright microwave source and sophisticated receivers, then we will have a problem.

123 posted on 01/08/2004 5:17:43 PM PST by SauronOfMordor (Nine out of the ten voices in my head told me to stay home and clean my guns today)
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To: vanmorrison
I remember being told for years that the USSR was every bit as powerful as the US was by the CIA. It came to pass, however, that the USSR was a basketcase.

I don't think this means anything as far as China is concerned. China has lots of cash. China is a major exporter of increasingly high-tech consumer and commercial goods. China and the former USSR cannot be compared.

124 posted on 01/08/2004 6:18:44 PM PST by arm958
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To: SauronOfMordor
I assume the Serbs managed to see the shadow when the F117 was flying very low??
125 posted on 01/08/2004 6:42:30 PM PST by ModelBreaker
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To: SauronOfMordor
I assume the Serbs managed to see the radar shadows only when the F117 was flying very low?? I guess you could have a very high plane with a transmitter flying over the CBG. It would be tough to get a strong enough signal from a satellite.
126 posted on 01/08/2004 6:51:42 PM PST by ModelBreaker
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Comment #127 Removed by Moderator

To: Poohbah
Glad it could brighten your day a bit there Poo.
128 posted on 01/08/2004 9:14:52 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
Wonder how much secret technology Clinton sold them already.. not to speak of their ideolical cronies in the US state dept.. and elsewhere...

Hope the boatworks are making new attack subs.. in that case the Chinese navy are mere targets...

129 posted on 01/08/2004 9:25:33 PM PST by hosepipe
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To: SauronOfMordor
If we belatedly discover the Chinese have developed a good way to put any stealth aircraft between a bright microwave source and sophisticated receivers, then we will have a problem.

Excessively simple solution: lob an AGM-88 at the microwave source.

130 posted on 01/09/2004 4:51:07 AM PST by Poohbah ("Beware the fury of a patient man" -- John Dryden)
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To: hosepipe
Hope the boatworks are making new attack subs

There's good news there. The Virginia class is under construction. The Virginia was christined in August of last year and will be commissioned in July of this year. The 2nd boat, the Texas, is slated for 2005 and the 3rd, the Hawaii, for 2006.

At that point we will be producing two of them per year. We plan to build thirty of them and they will replace the older LA class boats as they are decomissioned until we are left with the Seawolfs and the Virginias.

Here's a pic ot the Virginia prior to christening:


131 posted on 01/09/2004 6:15:21 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
Bump...
132 posted on 01/09/2004 8:11:20 AM PST by hosepipe
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To: Jeff Head
>>the SU-27 and the Sovremenny vessels are very capable platforms and

SU-27 is a capable fighter but without excellent pilots it's a moot point. Our own pilots suffered at the hands of MIGs in Vietnam untill we implemented better training. Once we did that our pilots fared far better.

In terms of the SU-27 vs F14, I don't think there is any issue. The F-14 will take it out before the SU-27 can utilize any advantages in manuverablity. (The F14 uses the Phoneix missile which has a range of over 100 miles. The SU-27 has no equavalent.) People underestimate the maneuverability of the F14. The fact that it's wings remain spread in low speed flight gives it alot more manuverability then the traditional delta wing.

>>Sunburn

The SeaRam will destroy a SunBurn. Think of it as sun block lotion for a naval vessel! (SEA Ram will replace Phalanx on Navy ships. It features dual mode Radar/Optical tracking, and it's missiles fly at speeds of over mach 2.)

The Chinese are simply trying to catch up to us. The problem is that while their technology is good, it isn't enough to stay up with us. What we are trying to field in the next few years will offset any advantages they have now or in the future.

While we do have much in development at the moment, if we went to war you'd see the R&D cycle be reduced. Right now there isn't an urgent need for a mach 6 anti-ship missile. But if we went to war with China I think you'd see a production line rolling off such missles in less than a few months.

With limited budgets, a lack of urgency, and more time than anything else, R&D is painfully slow. If things got urgent, you'd see money flow and R&D cycles shorten. (It's often said that tasks take as much time as is alloted to them. )

What they face in the future are:

* Lasers. US Navy is rather close to fielding laser based weapons.

* Super-cavitation CIWS: Originally designed to take out mines, this system can be modified to take out supercavitation torpedoes.

* Stealth aircraft: Though not invisible, reaction time is severely reduced for ship defense. Joint Strike Fighter and F-22, paired with EW measures, are a big problem for naval vessles. Though they can be seen with powerful ship-based radar, delivering a missile to the target is a much more difficult proposition.


* Aegis SM3 anti-missle protection. This is close to implemetation. Very strong anti-missile platform.

* Rods from God: Tungsten rods dropped from space. The impact is so severe that no warhead is required. If we can steer these things, a "stealth" rod from God will sink any Chinese vessel -- or ANY other vessel for that matter.

* Hypersonic missiles: Mack 6+ missiles with ranges of 400 miles. We'll be sinking their ships before they can even come close. (Probably fielded around 2012)

* Hypersonic intercontinental missiles: Mach 12+ missles used to deliver conventional/nuclear warheads. (Fielded 2020)

* Lasers Again. Airborne anti-missile lasers. This system while in R&D, could quickly be put into production.


133 posted on 01/09/2004 11:32:56 AM PST by 1stFreedom
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To: SauronOfMordor
>>If we belatedly discover the Chinese have developed a good way to put any stealth aircraft between a bright microwave source and sophisticated receivers, then we will have a problem.

Nah. ECM will take care of that. Sending false signals (ECM), decoy drones, and taking out tranmission towers will negate any such defence against stealth. Finally, EMP weapons will help to eliminate the threat.

>>Heck, the Serbs had a way around our stealth technology.

Well, yes and no. From what I understand, they knew the takeoff patterns of the F117s. The F117 can be seen on radar, but usually too late. (Also, I believe that the aircraft was not hit or damaged. I believe it was a close burst and the pilot panicked. From his testimony, it sounds like as soon as he felt the explosion he bailed. Not that I blame him, but it could have been a close hit instead of a direct hit.)

If you know the path and your system can see it, then you have a good chance of shooting it down. Remember that even though Stealth aircraft have reduce signatures, they are still flown outside the reach/path of radar installations. When they bomb heavily defended cities, such as Baghdad during the Gulf War, they flew around radar patterns until the last possible seconds. This didn't give Baghdad much reaction time when faint blips appeared on thier radar screens.

(We know they aren't invisible).

Track the aircraft several times, and you'll find a frequencey which works best against it. Once you got that down, all you need is a spotter to warn you of a takeoff. Then you stand a good chance of hitting the thing.

Expecting to attack the F117 this way is much different than having many planes in the air which show up on your radar. Throw in the fact that ECM is going full blast, and I think that shooting down a stealth aircraft becomes harder under full blown war conditions.

Finally, I believe the biggest threat to stealth comes not from radar but IR based weapons. Heat signatures are hard to hide. Even aircraft skin temperatures can be used to target "stealty" aircraft.

134 posted on 01/09/2004 11:50:40 AM PST by 1stFreedom
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To: John H K
The nice thing about something that big is that it could block a waterway if we sunk it.
135 posted on 01/09/2004 5:29:32 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: spetznaz
That was until Pearl Harbor made people realize that the so called 'Japs' had some teeth.

...even though the Japanese were ill-prepared for war with the U.S. even then.
136 posted on 01/09/2004 5:33:17 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: Jeff Head
I take it that nuclear attack subs come in handy for some or all of the vessels mentioned (along with whatever missile systems our ships have).
137 posted on 01/09/2004 5:42:01 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: 1stFreedom
Decreasing numbers of AIM-54's left in the inventory and from what I have been told, we're not building any new ones. We're going to the AMRAAM, which is a great missile...but lacks the legs of the Phoenix.

In addition, in terminal dive mode from long range, the Phoenix is not very manueverable. Great at taking out Tu-22M's or TU-16's, but not as effective against more modern fighters, especially once they are aware of them.

We need the LRAAM.

I am very familiar with the Rolling Airframe missile (RAM) system and know of its capabilities. It is not at all fool proof or 100% effective against the Sunburn or the Yahkont. Yes, it can take them down...but it will not get all of them. But, as I have said in the past...the missile threat plays to our strength...it is what we designed AEGIOS and all of the weapons systems being intergrated into it for, even though the Chinese and others continue to put efforts there to try and find vulnerability.

Aa to the rest, I agree with most of your other points. I understand that production would pick up, but much of our capability to shift peace time production over to war time production is being moved to the PRC as we speek. We'd have to build a lot of new plants from scratch. I have no doubt we would do this and that we would win in dramatic fashion...but building takes time and in war, time costs lives and ground.

The whole point of this thread is simply to document the efforts the PLAN is making in this regard...and they are not minimal or insubstantial. We need to keep our guard up and, IMHO, adopt economic policies with the PRC that does not tend to be what funds their buildup and efforts in this regard. but that's just my opinion.

138 posted on 01/09/2004 7:26:43 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: dr_who_2
Yes, particularly the new Virginia class. See my post 131.
139 posted on 01/09/2004 7:28:50 PM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
DUM TA DUM DUM

DUM TA DUM DUM

DUM TA DUM DUM DUM . . . . [DRAGNET]

a very troublesome dragonnet growing.
140 posted on 01/09/2004 8:48:25 PM PST by Quix (Particularly quite true conspiracies are rarely proven until it's too late to do anything about them)
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