US chain store sales slow after Xmas rush -Redbook

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | January 6, 2004

[Starwind]

US chain store sales slow after Xmas rush -Redbook Tuesday January 6, 8:56 am ET

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Post-Christmas promotions dragged on U.S. chain store sales, but retailers reported moderate business across broad channels, Redbook said in a report on Tuesday.

The pace of sales at major retailers grew by 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Jan. 3, slowing a touch from 3.9 percent the preceding week, the report said. Sales ended December down 1.0 percent when compared to November.

Store traffic remained high, even in the period following Christmas, but tight inventories kept some shoppers from finding what they wanted, the report said. Also, many shoppers decided to hold on to their gift cards for future use, delaying the time when retailers could book those sales.

The Redbook data are compiled from a sample of same-store sales at general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least one year.

[Starwind]

US chain store sales slip after Xmas blitz -report

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040106/economy_retail_icsc_1.html

Tuesday January 6, 7:45 am ET

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store sales slipped in the latest week after the late December Christmas shopping blitz, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales fell 0.1 percent in the week ended Jan. 3, down from a 2.0 percent gain the week before, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in its joint report. Sales for the week rose 5.6 percent compared with the previous year, up a bit from the previous week's 5.5 percent.

While retail sales for the holiday season were the strongest since 1999, the pace of sales slackened in the latest week, the report noted. ICSC said December's comparable store sales should still register a gain between 4.0 percent and 4.5 percent.

The ICSC-UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is compiled from a group of major discount, department and chain stores across the country that report their weekly results. The index measures sales growth with the year 1977 equaling 100.

[Starwind]

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[capt. norm]

"US chain store sales slip after Xmas blitz"

OH gee!
Let's see, this only happens every year.

Non-mystery #2: Why is it such big news this year?

[dawn53]

Let me just say this about retail sales.

I work for a company that sells mostly via the internet.

Since Christmas, we have broken all previous sales records of the past 10 years, and yesterday we had the largest sales day ever (in fact the sales were 20% more than our largest previous day).

We can't figure it out, but it happened!!!!

[RonF]

Same-store sales tells me how those particular stores did. But what I'd like to know is how retail did overall compared to last December. Also, do these numbers take into account on-line sales?

[Starwind]

Same-store sales tells me how those particular stores did. But what I'd like to know is how retail did overall compared to last December. Also, do these numbers take into account on-line sales?

Chainstore monthly reports are out on Thursday, December's Retail industry report from the Commerce Dept is due Jan 14th.

No they don't count online sales. Online sales, while growing rapidly, still only accounts for about 2 percent of total sales, IIRC.

[Constitutionalist Conservative]

Let's see, this only happens every year.

Or, as James Taranto at "Best of the Web" quips, You don't say.

[cibco]

Could you tell us what you sell? Thanks...

[dawn53]

Wide range of products and systems that "do it yourselfers" buy from us to install or have installed in their homes, either pre or post construction.

[discostu]

From the article:
The pace of sales at major retailers grew by 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Jan. 3

So sales were above the same time period last year, so the only "slowing" is the natural slowing that occurs after the Christmas drag race. These folks sure do try hard to make news bad, even when it obviously isn't.

[Starwind]

These folks sure do try hard to make news bad, even when it obviously isn't.

Click on the keywords and read prior chainstore sales threads.

The point is that the US consumer, the engine of the recovery, is running low on gas and is pulling back on purchases.

All the pundits said the strength of the recovery will be born out in greater holidays sales. Consumer retail sales have been slowing and even with renewed, steep discounting, holiday sales didn't reverse the trend.

But then the pundits said it will be made up in post holiday bargain shopping. That didn't happen either.

Bottom line, Sales ended December down 1.0 percent when compared to November. and Retail sales ended November down 2.8 percent compared with October.

[oceanview]

you'll see the same split in retail numbers that you would expect to see as we move towards a two tiered socio-economic class society: high end stores have big sales growth, big box and low end stores do OK, middle of the road stores like Macys die.

[Flyer]

we have broken all previous sales records of the past 10 years

I'm in a service business directly connected to air travel. We had our busiest Christmas season ever.

[discostu]

But are they running out of steam? Sales are up nearly 4% over last year. Doesn't sound like they're out of steam to me. Sales are supposed to drop off after the post Christmas sales, if they didn't retailers wouldn't look forward every year to Christmas time.

The other article you quoted said Christmas sales were projecting at being the best since 1999, up 4 to 4.5% over last year. That's right in line with what the pundits said.

Compared with what part of November? Crowds were still huge the monday after Christmas. Every projection is saying things were up over last year, given seasonal fluctuations monthly tracking is next to useless. And I'm not sure how they're arriving at some of these numbers, there's no possible way Christmas sales were up 4% over last year but down 1% from November, November sales are NEVER higher than December sales and for both those percentages to be accurate as presented then LAST year's December sales would also have to have been lower than November. Doing that two years running would rewrite the retail seasonal trends book. Maybe the growth was at a lower percentage.

[discostu]

Except of course the big box stores blew away last year's records, which blew away the records of the year before, which blew away the year before, etc. etc.

[Starwind]

November sales are NEVER higher than December sales

A point perhaps you should explain then to the people who conduct this survey.

Sales are up nearly 4% over last year. Doesn't sound like they're out of steam to me.

Sales were higher earlier in the year, coinciding with increased spending of tax rebates, cash-out re-fi's, and drawdown of savings. That source of consumer spending is now abating. Mortgage apps are falling, housing starts and permits are falling, construction is declining. All the durables and non-durables associated with home construction and re-fi's are declining.

The declining 'consumability' is evident in the aggregate retail sales being lower than November and lower than October - inspite of holidays, inspite of discounts.

Lacking some further stimulus (another tax cut, another rate cut, cashing in stock gains - which is a small portion of the consumer base and would also slow the market) consumer spending is likely to continue to trend downward.

[oceanview]

things are hardly booming, even services growth is slowing:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040106/economy_2.html

[discostu]

not earlier in the year, OVER LAST year. Quote from your original:
While retail sales for the holiday season were the strongest since 1999, the pace of sales slackened in the latest week, the report noted. ICSC said December's comparable store sales should still register a gain between 4.0 percent and 4.5 percent.

It's not possible to be up 4% over last year's December sales and down 1% from this November. In order for that to have happened this year's November sales would have to have been above last year's HOLIDAY sales by 5%, no way. And since they're saying November was down 2.8% from October then October 2003 would have to have been 7.8% higher than Decomber 2002, that is simply not possible under current retail trends. Somebody somewhere in this reporting chain is mixing what percentages their talking about, they can't all be gross sales because that would create a trend so massively different from the retail cycle of the last 100 years as to be earth shattering in it's importance. Remember traditionally the holiday shopping season (black friday through December 26th) accounts for 50% of retailers total annual business, so for these percentages to be tracking the same type of numbers the peak would have had to move to October; that would be the single biggest event in retail history.

Manufacturing orders are up. Retail sales are up over last year. The economy has gained its traction. By the standard seasonal retail trends January and February are the worst months of the year, by March people are staring to get tax refunds and sales go up, then comes summer vacations and summer spending which drives sales up again, then they drop a little as summer wears on and people get sick of the heat, then back to school drives things up, then the "wait for Christmas sales" duldrums begin, then black friday comes and rescues retail from bankruptcy, then you get the inventory clearance sales between Christmas and New Years and the whole cycle stars all over again.

[discostu]

Slowing growth is still growth.