My guess would be that Dean would carry at least eight of the 11 Northeastern states: Pennsylvania more resembles the Great Lakes states politically and Dean may also lose Delaware or New Hampshire. He will be shut out in all Southern and Border states. Enthusiasm for Dean by South Florida Jews will not be enough to overcome indifference by black and Hispanic voters. With the lack of minority enthusiasm and urban Democratic bosses focusing on saving Congressional and state legislative seats, I doubt Dean would even carry Illinois or Michigan. He might eke out a winning margin in Minnesota, as the old Farmer-Labor tradition dies hard. Dean is dead in the Plains and Rocky Mountain states, even New Mexico, as Hispanics will not feel comfortable with this arch-Yankee. He will win California and maybe Washington and Oregon. Of course, Hawaii and DC will go for the Democrat.
Bottom line: Dean wins CA, HI, WA, OR, MN, DC, MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME, 14 states plus the District of Columbia, and 42-45% of the popular vote. (Dean will do better in the popular vote because the CA, MA, NJ, and NY margins will be at least 60% pro-Dean. OTOH, Dean will probably get 45-50% in states such as IL, FL, MI, OH, and PA. Of the most populous states, only TX will have a 60%+ margin for Bush.
By your scenario the 14 States and D.C. for Dean would net him 180 EV to Bush's 358 EV. Pretty good guess. I have seen everything from a 49 State blow-out for Bush to a nail-biter that ends up a Electoral College tie and is resolved in Bush's favor in the House of Representatives.
I still don't have a feel for either a Dukakis or Mondale sized defeat for Dean, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out...
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