By your scenario the 14 States and D.C. for Dean would net him 180 EV to Bush's 358 EV. Pretty good guess. I have seen everything from a 49 State blow-out for Bush to a nail-biter that ends up a Electoral College tie and is resolved in Bush's favor in the House of Representatives.
I still don't have a feel for either a Dukakis or Mondale sized defeat for Dean, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out...
dvwjr
The one Democrat who could have a chance of winning, at least from his cultural background and heritage, is Richard Gephardt. A Southern Baptist, a German-American, a strong union man, and a St. Louis area resident (putting him on the boundary between the East and the West, and the Rust/Corn Belt-upland/border South fault line), he should reach a number of constituencies that would be uncomfortable with the Ivy League Congregationalist from New York's old social elite, via Vermont. However, Gephardt is not a good campaigner or public speaker. He is probably too "square" and Midwestern to appeal to the white liberal denizens of the big coastal cities and the college towns.
The one event that could turn the 2004 election into a rout like the elections of 1964, 1972, and 1984 would be if Ralph Nader decides to ramp up the Green Party for his 2000s leftist simulation of Ross Perot's futile runs of the 1990s. If that were to happen, many white liberals, perceiving Dean to be doomed, may decide to vote their conscience. If that happens, Bush may win 45-49 states.