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If Bin Ladin were alive he would want his followers to know it so as to give them inspiration. Iron clad proof would be easy for him to arrange. A high quality video shot with sound and Bin Ladin reading a current newspaper and a DNA sample. That would give absolute poof he was alive and his followers would redouble their efforts to kill us. This has not been done. There has been a very elaborate scheme of releasing tapes (some of which have been bits of old authentic tapes) to give the impression he is alive and well.

His followers ALREADY believe he's alive so what would be the point of such a tape? To convince you? Since Bin Laden has almost certainly changed his appearance since he became the most wanted man in the world I doubt releasing a video tape would serve him well. Were you aware that cave experts were brought in to view the videotape he released after 9-11 in an attempt to determine exactly what cave he was in? I'm sure he's aware. It was on CNN. Releasing a videotape would be an incredibly stupid thing for him or Ayman al-Zawahri to do.

Or do you think that Ayman al-Zawahri is dead too? He hasn't released any videotapes either.

Smogger, I'm not buying the whole notion that he's alive and the "reason" he doesn't show himself is that he doesn't want to show what he looks like now...because he looks so much different. Nah, that is hollywood. People were all saying the same thing about Saddam (that he changed the way he looked)...Nope, he look exactly like Saddam when we pulled him out....it was very easy for anyone to recognize him....

I tend to agree with the thought, that if Bin Laden was alive he would have put out at least one definite video as proof.

Nothing elaborate, but something definite with him speaking and discussing something current (say post Jan 2002). I think the last video put out (like 2 months ago) with him and his #2 guy Al Zaywairi (spelling I know). In that video that was said to be "current" it only showed Bin Laden and his #2 walking with no audio. This was a big red flag.

Because if they went through all the trouble and operational security to finally put out a video "proving" himself alive....they would have surly had him talk...yet, it was voiced over. Proving that it wasn't "current" because they didn't want the actual audio of the video to be heard.

But we do know that by releasing that video, that Bin Laden (or more likely it is seeming Al Qeada posing as Bin Laden) did want to get the video out to try and "prove" Bin Ladne is alive. So then this gets one thinking, if Bin Laden really wanted to prove he was alive, and went through the trouble of making a video, he would have surly put his voice on it, showing himself talking. But this wasn't done.

Now, I also like Monsoor (from Fox News)...he does seem to know what he is talking about, but I also believe he has to put out (false or half truth) information every so often...just in order to keep his sources "clean"...if he was always putting out concrete intel....this would be a tip off to those above his "sources"...So I believe he puts out false or half truth info every so often....His thoughts on Bin Laden being some of that....Just a gut feeling there. Obvioulsy I could be wrong on that.

Conclusion, If I had to take a percentage on it. 75% Bin Laden has been dead since Nov / Dec 2001.

If he is not dead, I'd say we get him before Sept of this year. If he is alive, I also say he is in the mountains of Pakistan....not in Iran.

"Were you aware that cave experts were brought in to view the videotape he released after 9-11 in an attempt to determine exactly what cave he was in? "

Doesn't wash-- he could just hang a sheet behind him and sit there while he talked. But, your point about his likely changed appearance is certainly valid.

Personally, I think he's dead, but it occurs to me that if he's alive, he doesn't mind if WE'RE not sure if he's dead or alive so long as his followers believe he's alive, which they do. And, I think the CIA saying stuff like it's "likely" that the tape is authentic is just hooey-- they can't prove it one way or another, and the American & western press WANTS to believe he's alive, so what the heck? Doesn't change the policies of our government one way or another, so might as well let them.

After a certain number of years with no verified sightings and no audio-tape, pretty much everyone will assume he's dead anyway.