Posted on 12/29/2003 7:16:13 PM PST by Dr. Marten
Happy New Year (?) Hong Kong
By Ray Heath
HONG KONG - New Year's Day is unlikely to be one of celebration for Tung Chee-hwa, Hong Kong's besieged chief executive. The occasion will be marred by the knowledge that thousands of pro-democracy supporters will be marching in favor of political reform.
It could actually be hundreds of thousands, for exactly six months earlier, on July 1, officials in both Hong Kong and Beijing were shocked when half a million demonstrators gathered in Hong Kong amid blistering heat to take part in a peaceful, but telling demonstration of the growing support for a more democratic system of government.
The trigger for that march was the proposed enactment of subversion laws under Article 23 of Basic Law, the constitution that set up the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) in 1997. Stunned by the strength of opposition, the government shelved the legislation, and secretary for security Regina Ip, who had been singled out as the intransigent architect of Article 23, turned in her badge.
This victory reignited the stuttering confidence of Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp, which suddenly sensed that, for the first time since the handover, they had a real chance of wining a more democratic Hong Kong on their terms.
That confidence, however, could be sadly misplaced. Beijing has begun to make plain that when, or if, the Hong Kong SAR sets out on the road to democracy, the Chinese government will be acting as traffic cop. Statements emerging from President Hu Jintao and other officials leave no doubt that when it comes to universal suffrage, the emphasis of Deng Xiaoping's "one country, two systems" will be firmly on "one country".
Beijng's hardline stance was set out early in December during the regular meeting Tung holds with party bosses in Zonghongnai, the Communist Party's enclave close to the Forbidden City. It was clear from Tung's grim expression there that this visit was not the usual back-slapping occasion, the kind which had been routine in the early part of his stewardship.
Reports from inside left no doubt that nothing had prepared the party leaders for half a million Hong Kongers taking to the streets in an expression of their disapproval for Article 23 and the Tung regime in general. As the party's appointee, Tung would never be criticized in public, but speaking fact-to-face, senior officials questioned how he and his hand-picked cabinet of insiders had become so out of touch with the people.
Just how out of touch they were became even clearer when district elections held in late November, which usually revolve around such issues as street cleaning or community centers, became politicized and the Democrat Party drubbed the previously dominant pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong.
If the results should carry though to next year's Legislative Council (Legco) elections, scheduled for late 2004, there is a real chance that the neutered lawmaking body could gain some real clout, a prospect which raises additional hopes that Hong Kong is on the way to a universal system of one person, one vote.
But all this talk has become too much for Beijing, and it has started handing out reminders of its interpretation of how the proposals for further democracy set out in the Basic Law are really going to work. The key article, Article 45 of the law, states: "The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures."
Currently, the chief executive is voted in by 800 members of an Election Committee. All are widely believed to have been selected because of their leanings toward the Beijing establishment, rather than any independent views they may hold. This system, and the voting system for Legco could change in 2007, according to Annex 1 and Annex 2 of the Basic Law. But the wording is ambiguous: "If there is a need to amend the method for selecting the Chief Executives for the terms subsequent to the year 2007, such amendments must be made with the endorsement of a two-thirds majority of all the members of the Legislative Council and the consent of the Chief Executive, and they shall be reported to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for approval," it states in Annex 1. Similar caveats cover Legco elections in Annex 2.
How the need for a change will be decided is not clear. The chances of Legco's current structure ever gathering the required two-thirds majority in favor of sweeping changes against the will of the chief executive or Beijing is remote, and even if it did, the National People's Congress (NPC) would still have the final say.
A sharp reminder of Beijing's grip on the system was handed out on December 5 by the official Xinhua news agency. It reported the views of four legal experts who said that anyone who thought that the constitutional changes would be entirely an affair for the SAR, misunderstood the rules. According to Xinhua, the panel was aware of Beijing's growing concerns about Hong Kong, its relationship with the mainland and the principle of "one country, two systems".
"Hong Kong's political system must pay attention to adhering to 'one country'. The precondition for 'one country, two systems' and 'one country' must not be compromised," the news agency said.
Professor Xiao Weiyun, one of those responsible for drafting the Basic Law, told Xinhua that the law clearly states that the methods for the selection of the chief executive and the formation of the Legislative Council shall be specified "in light of the actual situation and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress".
So far that progress has been painfully slow. The government has ignored repeated calls from the pro-democracy camp for public consultations on changes to the method for electing the chief executive and Legco members after 2007.
Under the Basic Law the 60-strong lawmaking body will, by 2007, continue to include 30 members elected by functional constituencies and representing commercial interests. This sector invariably supports the government in crucial votes. The remaining 30 members will be directly elected, but democrats complain that given the power of the functional constituencies, it is unrealistic to expect any anti-government moves to obtain a sufficient majority to be passed into law. They want 100 percent elected membership as a target for elections in 2008.
Unless there is a major shift of policy in Beijing, it is now clear that any move in toward full elected membership would inevitably be blocked by the NPC. It has enough problems with Taiwan politicians' growing appetite for independence without finding another poisoned shrimp on their shores. And faced with the new reality of Beijing's hold on Hong Kong's political progress, Tung Chee-hwa must resign himself to a disturbed New Year's Day and many more beyond in 2004.
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