Posted on 12/24/2003 10:10:52 AM PST by torstars
LONDON - Fears about a suspected U.S. case of mad cow disease spread quickly abroad Wednesday, with 10 countries blocking the import of American beef after a cow in Washington state tested positive for the illness.
Japan, the world's top importer of U.S. beef in terms of value, imposed an indefinite ban and planned to recall certain meat products already on the market, while South Korea halted customs inspections of American beef and suspended sales for meat already on supermarket shelves.
Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia also banned the imports, as did the Chinese territory of Hong Kong.
Mexico, which imports the largest quantity of American beef - 384,900 tons, also banned the import of live cattle from the United States. The United States shipped 106,000 head of cattle to Mexico last year.
(Excerpt) Read more at phillyburbs.com ...
Oh well, at least the beef people got to ride the Atkin's profit train for a while.
I'm guessing the roast beef at the deli in Safeway won't be $9.99 a lb. much longer.
Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from this list.
I don't get offended if you want to be removed.
No, and I still don't understand why the price is that high? Is it really mostly an Atkins driven demand?
I think there is some gouging going on, and in a way it serves those that were gouging right. However I realize that a lot more people will be hurt than just the gougers.
My guess is that Canada will be among the last to impose a US ban, because they want the US ban of their beef lifted.
After the confirmation, the level of US beef exported (which is about 10% of beef produced in the US) will approach zero.
I think that anyone with vCJD would trade for Hepatitis A in a heart beat.
The apparent trend toward preference of high-pro, low-carb diets has certainly created a strong underpinning of demand, but (if USDA is to be trusted -- usually a dubious proposition) US beef consumption is y/y up just a relatively modest amount. The relative supply deficit is what fuelled the $28/$86 cwt. rise in futures/dressed. This was exacerbated as long-term supply agreements from the packers to the national and regional grocery chains began to expire.
On another beef thread from 3 weeks or so ago, I said that, due to the full resumption of Canadian imports AND the continued Japanese ban on Canadian beef and product, the US consumer would see a 25% reduction in price by about April. Given the new development (please note that it doesn't really matter about the disposition of the infected cow -- the mkt reacts to perception, principally), we should see prices at retail down fully 25% by the end of January.
Phil Stanley, who for my money is THE best LC analyst at CME, stated early this a.m. that front-month cattle would drop $14/cwt on a lock-limit basis, i.e. w/o ANY trading. Packers will be backing off the cash absolutely just as fast as they can, consistent with keeping operations moving. Cash mkt is going to collapse for a week or two, followed by retail, esp. on high-end cuts.
Look for retail beef features beginning about 3rd week in Jan, and earlier if another BSE incident is reported. Bad luck for (most of) the cattle industry, to be sure, but in the meantime, buon appetito!
Beef steers and the rocketed prices of beef at the producer levels have caused all the dairy calfs to be raised as fat steers. Everyone and his brother has just jumped into the beefer business because record prices are to be reaped right now. Two semi loads of prime animals will make you rich right now.
This has caused hay prices which were already pressured to soar from $70 per ton to $200 per ton. By April I expected $300 per ton.
I hope this scare slows down the dynamics.
The FDA did immunohistochemistry (at testing facility in Ames, IA) with results on Dec 22, followed by more rapid tests with results on Dec 23. Then they held a news conference to announce presumptive positives.
The tests in England are only for confirmatory purposes. The results are VERY clear.
Interstate Meat in OR has a website that indicates they serve customers in Northern California, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
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