Consumer Sentiment Falls in December

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | December 23, 2003

[Starwind]

Consumer Sentiment Falls in December Tuesday December 23, 10:20 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell in December, but improved in the second half of the month after the capture of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, market sources said on Tuesday.

The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment fell to 92.6 in December, compared with 93.7 in November, though it was up from the preliminary survey reading of 89.6, the sources said, quoting a survey released to subscribers. Economists had forecast 91.0.

Saddam's capture on Dec. 13 triggered a robust rally in the stock market, and likely lifted consumer sentiment from the beginning of the month, Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

But sentiment declined from November, likely because the job market, which has shown early signs of improvement, seemed to lose some momentum in November, Low said.

A report in early December showed that payrolls grew at a slower rate in November than economists had expected.

Lower consumer sentiment seems to be reflected in lackluster retail sales for the holiday season, even if the link between sentiment and sales is usually weak.

Retailers including Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:WMT - News) have warned that the holiday season could be on the weak side of their expectations, in part because of bad weather in Northeast.

[Starwind]

Fyi...

[Trust but Verify]

I don't know what these retailers are talking about. Everywhere I go, the stores are PACKED. It took me 40 minutes to get out of the lot at the mall yesterday afternoon. Lines are 10 deep at check-out counters. People are walking around with packages from many stores and the lines to buy gift certificates are amazing.

[jveritas]

"The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment fell to 92.6 in December, compared with 93.7 in November, though it was up from the preliminary survey reading of 89.6, the sources said, quoting a survey released to subscribers. Economists had forecast 91.0."

DNC Headquarters December 23rd 2003, 2:00 PM (EST)

Hate Bush Memo # 932304567899990089990000111111:

To All Democrats:

Despite the fact that the consumer sentiment is still extremely high, and despite the fact that the economy is growing in the fastest path since 1983, and despite the fact that the DOW is above 10,000, go to the media and spin this very tiny fall in consumer sentiment from November to December as very bad economic news for George Bush. Always remember to lie and spin, lie and spin, lie and spin.

[Orangedog]

The only place I've seen long lines is at Walmart, but the one's around here in Ohio are always like that. Which is why I avoid the place like the plague.

As far as the shopping malls, the one's I've seen have not been nearly as crowded as I expected.

[dead]

Is there a difference between "consumer confidence" and "consumer sentiment" or did they just change the name?

[LS]

I love the way Reuters reports: if the index INCREASES, but doesn't increase as fast as "expectations," then the report is that it has FALLEN. That isn't exactly true, is it?

[jveritas]

How many mall did you see?????

[Starwind]

Is there a difference between "consumer confidence" and "consumer sentiment" or did they just change the name?

There is a legitimate distinction insofar as the U of Michigan refers to its survey as "Consumer Sentiment" and the Conference Board refers to its survey as "Consumer Confidence"

I deliberately use both as keywords as I'm interested in all similar reports, and don't want to omit one when I search simply because it is 'marketed' under a different name.

[dead]

They probably use different formulations too. Like Coke and Pepsi. Thanks!

[Trust but Verify]

WalMart is one of the retailers that is bitching.

[Starwind]

I love the way Reuters reports: if the index INCREASES, but doesn't increase as fast as "expectations," then the report is that it has FALLEN. That isn't exactly true, is it?

Reuters based the headline not on expectations but the actual monthly difference.

From the Article:

The University of Michigan's final reading of consumer sentiment fell to 92.6 in December, compared with 93.7 in November

92.6 is lower than 93.7. It numerically fell from the number in the previous month.

[Walkin Man]

Its all about jobs or the lack of same.

I don't care how high the NYSM gets, if I just got my job outsourced to India, China or Mexico, my personal economic depression just started!

[Orangedog]

I drive by two on my way home. My days of roaming the malls were over 20 years ago, so I don't go to every one in the area anymore.

[KevinDavis]

I did most of my shopping online this year. Very easy.

[twigs]

The stores where I usually shop have had less lines than usual. I've found that astounding. I shop at discount stores which nevertheless have good quality merchandise. Not many people there.

[Orangedog]

My next door neighbor and I are both engineers, by trade. He was an engineer at a petro-chem company for something like 20 years and was laid off two years ago. I got laid off from my job with one of the telecoms last week. Telecom is dead and that's the only industry I have experience in, so chances are my next gig is going to pay less. But I'm in better shape than my neighbor. He's in his 50's and the places that have given him interviews are looking for someone younger and cheaper.
I was thinking about going back to school to learn programming, but that seems to be just as bad as the hardware side of tech. Hopefully the first of the year shows some improvement.

[Orangedog]

Mine was all finished before Thanksgiving.

[KevinDavis]

I think that is why there is less people at the stores and malls nowadays...

[Lazamataz]

I'm doing my part. Our company looks poised for success. Then I start hiring.

Freepers, mostly.