[skraeling]

The game is to hold the status quo as long as possible. Time is working against China on this issue, and with Taiwan.

[BroncosFan]

Unfortunately, the military balance is tilting in favor of the PRC. Every year the PRC adds more and more short range missiles opposite Taiwan. It continues to upgrade its navy, not to anything approaching parity with the US, but to a point where it would be sure to inflict a Falklands-style bloody nose on a few US ships should we decide to intervene. Meanwhile, Taiwan can't get modern destroyers from the US (it had to settle for 4 Kidd class) and is having trouble acquiring modern deisel boats because we don't build them anymore and our allies who do are reluctant to annoy Beijing. While China still can't launch a D-Day style invasion, I don't believe it aspires to. Like Rummy, the PRC military thinkers take network-centric warfare seriously. A lightning attack from the air combined with SF and sleeper agent-induced chaos from within followed by a "deal" offered to Taiwan: reunite now and you'll get the same deal as Hong Kong just might work since it looks like Washington might dither just long enough for it to be a fait accompli.

[Steel Wolf]

The game is to hold the status quo as long as possible. Time is working against China on this issue, and with Taiwan.

Exactly. Time is not on the PRC's side. The longer that Taiwan remains free, prosperous and strong, the better role model it will seem to the average Chinese person. They'll start to think 'If other Chinese people can have all the good things a great nation should have, why not us?'

They'll also see Taiwan as proof that the central government can be disobeyed. That's another good lesson for them to learn.