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Unfortunately, the military balance is tilting in favor of the PRC. Every year the PRC adds more and more short range missiles opposite Taiwan. It continues to upgrade its navy, not to anything approaching parity with the US, but to a point where it would be sure to inflict a Falklands-style bloody nose on a few US ships should we decide to intervene. Meanwhile, Taiwan can't get modern destroyers from the US (it had to settle for 4 Kidd class) and is having trouble acquiring modern deisel boats because we don't build them anymore and our allies who do are reluctant to annoy Beijing. While China still can't launch a D-Day style invasion, I don't believe it aspires to. Like Rummy, the PRC military thinkers take network-centric warfare seriously. A lightning attack from the air combined with SF and sleeper agent-induced chaos from within followed by a "deal" offered to Taiwan: reunite now and you'll get the same deal as Hong Kong just might work since it looks like Washington might dither just long enough for it to be a fait accompli.

Washington might dither just long enough for it to be a fait accompli.

I worry about that too. It takes a lot of savvy to use our economic clout with China to prevent it, but the better off their citizens become, the softer they become and the less they want to lose the good life. Best to appeal to their greed while holding a sword over their head. Their economic links to Taiwan grow stronger every day.

Unfortunately, the military balance is tilting in favor of the PRC. Every year the PRC adds more and more short range missiles opposite Taiwan.

Unless they wish to sterilize the entire island, the effect of those weapons would be nil.

It continues to upgrade its navy, not to anything approaching parity with the US, but to a point where it would be sure to inflict a Falklands-style bloody nose on a few US ships should we decide to intervene.

Followed by losing their entire navy.

We wouldn't send "a few ships." We'd send the 7th Fleet, which is a much more powerful navy than China's.

While China still can't launch a D-Day style invasion, I don't believe it aspires to.

Without ChiCom boots on the ground, Taiwan remains independent.

Like Rummy, the PRC military thinkers take network-centric warfare seriously.

Unfortunately, NCW doesn't get them across the strait.

A lightning attack from the air combined with SF and sleeper agent-induced chaos from within followed by a "deal" offered to Taiwan: reunite now and you'll get the same deal as Hong Kong just might work since it looks like Washington might dither just long enough for it to be a fait accompli.

Problem with your scenario: Taiwan panics, and Shanghai and the Three Gorges Dam disappear in blinding white flashes. Taiwan then makes a counteroffer: "Leave us alone, dismantle all of your offensive forces under international supervision, and we won't destroy other selected targets in China. Your call, bubbas."