Poll: Bush leads all Dems in NH (and a question for you poll gurus)

The Union Leader ^ | 12/22/03 | AP

[crv16]

Poll: Bush leads all Dems in NH

Associated Press

CONCORD — The Democrats have been getting the attention, but a new poll shows President Bush would get the votes in a head-to-head contest in New Hampshire.

The poll, for the Concord Monitor, shows President Bush would beat any of the Democrats on the Presidential primary ballot in the state.

The poll shows Howard Dean still has a solid lead among Democrats, but says he would lose big to President Bush. It shows John Kerry and Joe Lieberman would fare better against Bush, but still would lose to him.

By the numbers, the poll of 600 likely voters gives Bush a 25-point point lead over Dean, 57-32 percent. It gives the President a 15-point-lead over Kerry (55-40) and Lieberman (54-39) and a 19-point lead over Wes Clark (56-37) and Dick Gephardt (55-36). The margin of error was plus or minus five points.

[crv16]

Great news for Dubya! Question though -- Dean leads Kerry by a huge margin here in NH (46 to 17 percent, latest UNH poll).

How is it then that when Kerry is matched up against Bush, he's only behind by 15%. But when Dean is matched up against Bush, he's behind by 25%. Doesn't make sense. Can someone explain this for me???

[harpu]

That's exactly why Dean is the pubbies choice of record for the 2004 race...

[smith288]

Go Dean! Go!

[DeFault User]

Assume that Dean v. Kerry only involves Democrats. Dean or Kerry v. Bush is all voters including RINOs.

[TheBigB]

We'd rather have Kookycinich, but Dean'll do. :)

[Tennessean4Bush]

Dean gets no independents, Kerry and others do. When polling likely Dem voters, that is where Dean does best.

[EDINVA]

because the D's who will be voting in the primary represent a relatively small portion of the entire NH voting population. Among them, Dean scores higher, but when the entire state voting population comes into play and that entire population can choose, there's a preference for Kerry and Lieberman over Dean and, of course, for Bush over all of them.

If there are, say, 1,000,000 voters overall, and the D's who will vote in the primary are 200,000, Dean could prevail with his 36%; that vote is diluted when the
remaining 800,000 voters are represented in a poll.

[crv16]

Dean gets no independents, Kerry and others do. When polling likely Dem voters, that is where Dean does best.

That makes sense. Looks like Dean is too liberal for independents to support.

GO DEAN GO!

[alloysteel]

Pose the question a little differently: If Bush were running in the Democrat primary, he may still turn out to be the leading contender, even if he is perceived as being a Republican.

It is so unpopular to be a Democrat nowadays....

[William McKinley]

Think of it this way. While Dean gets more support among Democrats than Kerry, Democrats make up only a little more than a third of the electorate. Kerry apparently appeals to more independents than Dean does.

Further, the Dean supporters by and large HATE George Bush and would vote for a turnip over him, so Kerry (and all the others) get almost all of the pro-Dean people when their names are used in the matchup question instead.

[Moosilauke]

Dean gets no independents, Kerry and others do.

Here's a NH poll from a couple weeks ago that illustrates your point. Among independents, Bush beats an unnamed "democrat" opponent 47-32. When the opponent is identified as "Dean", the margin grows to 63-11.

By capturing the angry wing of the democrat party, Dean can get the nomination...and alienate virtually all other voters.

[jagrmeister]

NH is a very independent state, with many independents holding libertarian leanings. They obviously have issues with Howard Dean's penchant to raise taxes and interfere in private/religious matters such as marriage. In contrast, they see Kerry as perhaps less offensive in those regards (and probably stronger on foreign policy as well). Bush won NH by only 1%. So that he's winning by 15%-25% in this battleground state speaks volumes about his chances. Of course, it's early to make those kinds of judgments.