[Enterprise]

If China becomes economically unstable, how in the hell would it help solve the problem by unifying with Taiwan by force? In some sort of logic it might be a diversion to the people, but it has the ring of Iraq invading Kuwait. I can understand why Indonesia might become poorer, being Islamic and all. And the Philippines have no one to blame but their stupid short sighted leaders who didn't renew military contracts with the United States.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

But...but...but.. all United States' jobs are scheduled to be exported to the ChiComs with their cheap slave labor.

I do not believe that the free market is going to take care of things.

I want laws.

I want to protect American jobs by telling everyone where they can work and who they can work for and what they can buy and who from and for how much, and I especially want to make it illegal for American companies to export American jobs to countries with a slave labor class.

It's just not fair!

This will not stand!!! </sarcasm>

[AzJohn]

The article, especially the headline, is a little misleading. In the original report a future China "crash" is only a single paragraph in a list of possible future "wild cards". Here is a page with a link to the actual report.

[Print]

"CIA report predicts..."

Now I know it ain't gonna happen.

[international american]

The Chi-Coms are already building their retirement mansions in Shanghai. In 20 years the commies will be nothing but a memory in China.

[Moonman62]

What sort of track record does the CIA have for making predictions? Not good, I presume.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Pretty good.

Their "Japan 2000" report (at Rochester Univ), though, along the same lines, was pretty pathetic and way off target. They did that back in 1993 I believe.

Bookmarking at any rate.

[onedoug]

Their economy could be sustained by the manufacture of GW Bush action figures alone.

[Steel Wolf]

The report also warns that China could "crash" in the coming years, leading to a desperate attempt by the Chinese Communist Party to unite Taiwan by force

Hmm, I'm not sure what to make of this sentance. If the Chinese government is destabilized, in all likelyhood the roots of that destabilization won't be placated by the invasion of Taiwan. If nothing else, it would add fuel to their fire. I also doubt they'd send away the best parts of their military when they might need it to suppress the populace.

Unless China is in an advantageous position, I don't forsee them making a move on Taiwan. A period of danger to the regime's survival wouldn't exactly be great timing for an invasion.

[Steel Wolf]

"Northeast and Southeast Asia will progress along divergent paths: the countries of the North will become wealthier and more powerful, while the largest states in the South -- Indonesia and the Philippines — will become poorer, more populous, and more unstable," the report states.

Very true. The Philippines has stumbled over reform and is now sunken in corruption and infighting. Arroyo may wind up leaving office in the same manner as the last president, ie at gunpoint.

Much the same with Indonesia and Malaysia. They advanced far enough along to realize that there was solid public support for Islamic hardliners. Now they have begun chasing those numbers without admitting how badly that could get out of hand. If those two countries fall to the religious extremists, as they very well could, it will greatly compound the misery in that part of the world.