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CIA projection sees China 'crash,' North Asia boom
World Tribune ^
| 12/19/03
Posted on 12/20/2003 1:53:48 PM PST by truthandlife
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To: truthandlife
If China becomes economically unstable, how in the hell would it help solve the problem by unifying with Taiwan by force? In some sort of logic it might be a diversion to the people, but it has the ring of Iraq invading Kuwait. I can understand why Indonesia might become poorer, being Islamic and all. And the Philippines have no one to blame but their stupid short sighted leaders who didn't renew military contracts with the United States.
To: truthandlife
But...but...but.. all United States' jobs are scheduled to be exported to the ChiComs with their cheap slave labor.
I do not believe that the free market is going to take care of things.
I want laws.
I want to protect American jobs by telling everyone where they can work and who they can work for and what they can buy and who from and for how much, and I especially want to make it illegal for American companies to export American jobs to countries with a slave labor class.
It's just not fair!
This will not stand!!! </sarcasm>
3
posted on
12/20/2003 2:13:50 PM PST
by
E. Pluribus Unum
(Drug prohibition laws help fund terrorism.)
To: Enterprise
It's the logic of all regimes and social orders desperate to rally people when their polities are lacking popular support or facing exhaustion. Junkers/German empire, Bolsheviks through Soviet adventurism in the early 1980s, Britain in early 20th century before the empire collapsed after WWII, France in the 1950s (Algeria/Vietnam), and on and on we go.
KEEP THIS ARTICLE -- IT IS TRULY HISTORIC, BECAUSE IT IS THE FIRST GOVERNMENT REPORT PREDICTING A CRISIS ON THE LEVEL OF THE USSR IN 1991 FOR CHINA -- AND THE FIRST TO ASSUME AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY THAT COMMUNISM AND THE SOCIALIST BUREAUCRACY MIGHT COLLAPSE IN CHINA!!!!!!!!!!!!
To: truthandlife
The article, especially the headline, is a little misleading. In the original report a future China "crash" is only a single paragraph in a list of possible future "wild cards".
Here is a page with a link to the actual report.
5
posted on
12/20/2003 2:30:13 PM PST
by
AzJohn
To: CaptIsaacDavis
I can remember the speech by President Reagan where he was talking about the Soviet Union and he said the "last pages were being written." Since this article came out during a Republican Presidency, I tend to trust it more. That being said, I wonder what the details are that will bring this about.
To: truthandlife
"CIA report predicts..."Now I know it ain't gonna happen.
7
posted on
12/20/2003 2:31:18 PM PST
by
Print
To: Enterprise
"If China becomes economically unstable, how in the hell would it help solve the problem by unifying with Taiwan by force? In some sort of logic it might be a diversion to the people, but it has the ring of Iraq invading Kuwait. I can understand why Indonesia might become poorer, being Islamic and all. And the Philippines have no one to blame but their stupid short sighted leaders who didn't renew military contracts with the United States"
VERBATIM!!
To: truthandlife
The Chi-Coms are already building their retirement mansions in Shanghai. In 20 years the commies will be nothing but a memory in China.
To: truthandlife
What sort of track record does the CIA have for making predictions? Not good, I presume.
To: international american
Trying [or threatening]to take Tiawan by force would be some leverage against the USA for financial assistance.
11
posted on
12/20/2003 3:15:13 PM PST
by
Tom D.
To: Moonman62; AzJohn
What sort of track record does the CIA have for making predictions? Not good, I presume. From AzJohn's link in post #5 to the NIC homepage;
[NIC]: This is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball gazing; our project may be called 2020 but neither our hindsight nor our foresight is 20/20. Rather, after considering the forces that will shape our world, a variety of regional and global scenarios will be developed that represent alternative futuresand these futures will be discussed and debated through a series of conferences, in papers, and through dynamic Web-based interactions.
To: Enterprise
If China becomes economically unstable, how in the hell would it help solve the problem by unifying with Taiwan by force? That won't do anything but accentuate the crash and extend it into the distant future. But, as you mention, it would distract the populace from their bankruptcy. China has chosen to buy the large military items, especially Navy ships, rather than create an infrastructure to build them internally. This might indicate that China has short-term military goals and perhaps they don't plan for a necessity for a long-term projection of force through the Navy. They may be relying on their nuclear deterrent to keep China safe from major foreign powers. China's industrial expansion would be limited by two factors. One, China is a little short of oil. Two, the rest of the world might tire of buying cheap plastic electronic toys.
China is right to develop a space capability, and they have some very ambitious plans including farms in space. Whether they can get ahead of the power curve and realize their goals in space is a fine question. America can do this, but China is moving too slowly in space sectors to reach the take-off point soon enough.
13
posted on
12/20/2003 3:28:16 PM PST
by
RightWhale
(Close your tag lines)
To: truthandlife
Pretty good.
Their "Japan 2000" report (at Rochester Univ), though, along the same lines, was pretty pathetic and way off target. They did that back in 1993 I believe.
Bookmarking at any rate.
14
posted on
12/20/2003 3:45:26 PM PST
by
AmericanInTokyo
(NORTH KOREA is a DANGEROUS CANCER in late stages; still, we only meditate and take herbal medicines)
To: FreeReign
Rather, after considering the forces that will shape our world, a variety of regional and global scenarios will be developed that represent alternative futuresand these futures will be discussed and debated through a series of conferences, in papers, and through dynamic Web-based interactions. In other words, send billions more of the taxpayers money to finance our debates.
To: truthandlife
Their economy could be sustained by the manufacture of GW Bush action figures alone.
16
posted on
12/20/2003 3:52:05 PM PST
by
onedoug
To: RightWhale
China is right to develop a space capability, and they have some very ambitious plans including farms in space. Oh sure, farming in space is much more efficient than here on the ground where all the dirt and water is. That's why everybody is doing it.
To: Moonman62
farming in space is much more efficient It's worth thinking about. The program would have to be massive, but there is no sign that China is making that kind of effort in space, nor that they can.
18
posted on
12/20/2003 4:00:24 PM PST
by
RightWhale
(Close your tag lines)
To: truthandlife
The report also warns that China could "crash" in the coming years, leading to a desperate attempt by the Chinese Communist Party to unite Taiwan by force Hmm, I'm not sure what to make of this sentance. If the Chinese government is destabilized, in all likelyhood the roots of that destabilization won't be placated by the invasion of Taiwan. If nothing else, it would add fuel to their fire. I also doubt they'd send away the best parts of their military when they might need it to suppress the populace.
Unless China is in an advantageous position, I don't forsee them making a move on Taiwan. A period of danger to the regime's survival wouldn't exactly be great timing for an invasion.
19
posted on
12/20/2003 4:11:44 PM PST
by
Steel Wolf
(There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.)
To: All
The chi-coms
permit "captialism" in a limited number of areas of the people's "democratic republic." What do commies know about
free enterprise?
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, published by Random House and he says,
There are two things to know about the banking system in China. First, the major state banks, the so-called Big Four, are insolvent. Second, the effort to bail them out is not working. Everything else is simply detail.
The most important is this: The crisis in the Chinese banking system is perhaps the most serious in the world today. The cause is not hard to understand. The Big Four, over the course of just a decade, have squandered the savings of a great people at the direction of Beijing. Senior technocrats tried to reform state-owned enterprises by replacing direct subsidies from the central treasury with loans from the four largest banks (Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China).
The theory was sound: Wean sick SOEs off grants and make them self-sufficient. In practice, the plan was a disaster: State enterprises knew they didn't have to pay back the banks. So they didn't. In an economic system divorced from economic reality, banks effectively became gift givers. They essentially vacuumed cash from small savers and disgorged it onto state enterprises at the direction of thousands of officials. The process was easy, quick and absurd.
The massive transfer of assets from the banks to the enterprises is a matter of indifference to government technocrats. After all, the state owns both. . . .
http://china.jamestown.org/pubs/view/cwe_002_006_001.htm
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