Posted on 12/20/2003 1:25:57 PM PST by buzzyboop
HARLESTON, S.C., Dec. 19 — "Let's see now," the Rev. James Darby said, trying to recall which Democratic presidential candidates had stopped by his church, the largest African-American congregation in the state. "Lieberman, Kerry's sister, Edwards twice, Dean twice, Sharpton did a town hall, Clark came by."
"We are being treated like the belles of the ball in South Carolina," Mr. Darby, the politically active pastor of Morris Brown African Methodist Episcopal church here, said with a laugh.
The same is true in other black pockets of South Carolina, where the primary is the first in the South. There are seven primaries and caucuses on Feb. 3, but Democrats here are promoting the South Carolina election as the one that will test the candidates' appeal among African-Americans, a core constituency. The African-American vote is expected to be 40 to 50 percent of the Democratic turnout.
The candidates are paying attention, in part because South Carolina is seen by many as a state where rivals can slow the nationwide momentum of Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor who lags in most polls in the state and has been slow to organize here.
"Who among us really believes that an antiwar Northern liberal Democrat can be elected president of the United States?" reads a flier distributed by a state senator, Robert Ford, a longtime civil rights activist.
Mr. Ford is a supporter of Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, who is counting on a victory here to propel his candidacy.
The flier goes on to list "Northern liberals" who have lost, from Adlai E. Stevenson in 1952 to Michael S. Dukakis in 1988, and promotes Mr. Edwards as someone who "can help the Democratic Party win back the South."
In a conference call with reporters Friday to promote Gen. Wesley K. Clark's strength in the South, Jim Hodges, a former governor, suggested that Democrats must have a candidate with Southern appeal at the top of the ticket to help capture the seats of five retiring United States senators from the South, including Mr. Edwards. "The South is more significant than ever," he said.
Most of the major candidates have increased their visits here in the past month, taking time off from campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. Representative Richard A. Gephardt campaigned here last weekend with his marquee supporter from the state, Representative James E. Clyburn, who is black and is considered one of the most influential politicians in South Carolina. Mr. Edwards appeared here on Wednesday with Mr. Ford, and General Clark is due to visit on Sunday with Andrew J. Young Jr., a former United Nations ambassador, and Representative Charles B. Rangel of New York.
The Rev. Al Sharpton, who Democratic strategists say is perhaps the candidate best known to black voters, has made regular Sunday appearances. And Senator Joseph I. Lieberman has put in appearances.
The advertising war is escalating as well, with Mr. Edwards, Mr. Gephardt and Mr. Clark all on the air.
Dr. Dean has been making up for a late start here with commercials broadcast regularly on news programs. He has also campaigned here with Representative Jesse L. Jackson Jr. of Illinois, whose father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, a native of Greenville, S.C., won this state's Democratic presidential caucus in 1988.
Some Democrats and the grass-roots organizers they are cultivating, including ministers of African-American churches, say voters here are unaccustomed to forming opinions so early — South Carolina has not had as competitive a primary or caucus since 1988 and never this soon — and are largely hanging back awaiting the results of Iowa and New Hampshire to winnow the field.
"This is South Carolina's first real primary and it's a new ballgame for us," Mr. Darby said. "Most folk are waiting to see how things sort out in Iowa or New Hampshire."
That may explain why the poll results here have been somewhat erratic. Mr. Edwards, a native of South Carolina who has campaigned heavily here in the past year, has led most polls, but Mr. Sharpton, Dr. Dean, General Clark and Mr. Lieberman have variously placed second. Most surveys show well over a third of voters have not made up their minds.
"I have seen some of the commercials, but I don't know who they really are," said Nadette Johnson, a retired nurse who attends Mr. Darby's church but has not seen any candidates there. "If they can bring some jobs here I will go with them, but there's so many of them saying the same old thing."
Linda Feldman, a Washington pollster who conducted a survey for Greenville magazine last month that showed Mr. Edwards five points ahead of Mr. Sharpton, said such sentiment was common. "Support is very fluid," she said. "It is still very open there. They don't know the candidates well yet."
Campaigning here is far less intimate than in Iowa or New Hampshire. The living room gatherings in those states give way to Sunday morning church services and fish fries here. And in many cases voters are inclined to follow the word of their preacher or long-standing civic leaders and politicians.
"Senator Ford is committed to him so I am committed to him," said Sarah Greene, after seeing Mr. Edwards at an event here on Wednesday .
Although Representative Clyburn's endorsement is expected to help Mr. Gephardt, his organization is not unified. One of Mr. Clyburn's top aides is working for Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts and another for Dr. Dean, while Mr. Clyburn's cousin, State Representative William Clyburn, is supporting Mr. Edwards.
Mr. Clyburn said his endorsement would be effective only if Mr. Gephardt won Iowa or lost a close race. "If he does not win Iowa and if the loss is 10 points, it is going to be very difficult to position him to win here," Mr. Clyburn said.
It is Mr. Edwards, who is at the bottom of national polls and in the distant middle of the pack in Iowa and New Hampshire, who has racked up the most endorsements, 65, from an array of local legislators and party leaders. Mr. Edwards started campaigning here more than a year ago and has been broadcasting commercials off and on since August, making him the first candidate on the air.
Rival campaign officials say the fact that he does not hold a commanding double-digit lead in polls in light of all his early efforts here and his roots in the South shows he is vulnerable. But Mr. Edwards's aides said they were so confident that he would win that he has been spending considerably more time in Iowa and New Hampshire of late.
"Because of the early work he did he has the luxury of not having to be here as much as the others," said John Moylan, Mr. Edwards's South Carolina campaign chairman. Still, Mr. Edwards plans to visit again after Christmas.
Mr. Clark, who grew up in Arkansas and like Mr. Edwards is playing up his Southern roots, has been endorsed by Mr. Hodges, the former governor, and is counting on support from independents and the 400,000 military retirees who reside here, said his state director, Scott Anderson. Independents and Republicans can vote in the Democratic primary, Mr. Anderson notes, and many of them are whites who have left the Democratic Party.
"Folks in my state really love the military," said Joe Erwin, the chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, who has not endorsed any of the candidates. "They are more conservative than in the Northeast and Western states where Dean has been strong."
With Dr. Dean's late start, Mr. Erwin said, "I was beginning to feel as party chair they were walking away from South Carolina." He said the campaign had still not bought its list of Democratic voters, something most of the major candidates did months ago.
But Don Jones, Dr. Dean's campaign director here, who was hired three weeks ago, said the campaign has made up much ground, hiring new staff members every day and planning to open more field offices, five, than any other campaign.
Mr. Jones scoffed at the notion that Dr. Dean could be stopped here and said the campaign recognized the importance of this primary. Dr. Dean is returning here to campaign on Dec. 30.
"We are playing in South Carolina to win," Mr. Jones said.
Dr. Dean has also been reaching out to local political leaders for backing. "It's been an intense past couple of weeks," Mr. Jones said. "We have people in the field all over the state." In addition to his television commercials, Dr. Dean has also begun broadcasting a radio advertisement across the state.
Although much has been made of Dr. Dean's struggles to win black support, Mr. Jones said he would eventually break through and dismissed Mr. Clyburn's endorsement of Mr. Gephardt as overrated. "People are free-thinking," he said. "African-Americans are not monolithic."
If you want on or off this list send me a Freepmail.
Yes, I expect to see many of them voting for Bush in November.
. . . and if it wasn't for the income tax deductability of church contributions, there would be absolutely no legitimate beef about it. Switch to a flat tax, and free the churches!
All that means is that every would-be "Prom King" in this race is out to screw her when the "Ball" is over.
The the dems have no use for us after the ball, they are just flirting with us for the honor of the first dance.
SC is in the GOP's column in November, the dems won't give us a second look after the primary.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.