Posted on 12/18/2003 11:09:33 PM PST by JohnHuang2
SAMs and political gambles
By Tom Marzullo
© 2003 WorldNetDaily.com
Baghdad International Airport has seen a number of tumultuous events in the last year, but this run of luck is not over by a long shot as yet. For what is coming up is a sizable political gamble on the part of the Bush administration.
What I refer to is the resumption of civilian flights into Baghdad.
Managing to get that airport open for routine business is certainly a noticeable outward sign of progress toward normalcy, as defined by the international media and diplomats. So do please just forget the problems of raising a politically and operationally viable military force, of restoring basic services in Baghdad and the witch's cauldron of discontent that is brewing from the Coalition Provisional Authority's failure to restore better than 5 percent of the electrical service since the fall of Saddam ... Just lookit whut we brung y'all !
Well, I sure am looking – and not just at the potentially lush political hay that could be made. There are a number of issues surrounding this plan that I will lay out for you to examine.
Surely we have not forgotten about the DHL transport that was hit by a shoulder-fired SAM (surface-to-air missile) not so long ago. The SAM situation in Baghdad is a real problem – and it's not getting any better. First off, we aren't finding any sizable numbers of these missiles. The $500 reward we posted on each one isn't working either, because nobody has stepped up to claim that money.
But there is a sensible reason for this, as I will elaborate. Let us first look at the amount of the reward offered – considering that new recruits to Saddam Fedayeen were being offered $1,500 U.S. a month (that number has likely risen given current events), it is hardly worthwhile to risk your life and that of your family to turn in a SAM, even a questionable Russian SA-7 or it's even shoddier Chinese copy. These are worth far more on the open market any day of the week without the risk of double-crossing some highly unpleasant folks.
So we have the same basic problem here as with the below-market pay of the 'New Iraqi Army' that causes so many desertions. Our CPA bureaucrats and their bosses who are trying to do this on a shoestring budget, while claiming "that ought to be enough to work" must have missed the basic undergrad economics presentations on supply and demand.
But let's say that we do pony up the several grand required to buy some SAMs off the market. I'd give a lot better than even odds that we get the ones that probably aren't operational and that most of the money goes toward buying better ones (or other needed specialty gear) from Pakistani, Syrian or Jordanian stocks. The Pakistani route is a little more expensive because their stuff has to either be flown out to a nation adjacent to Iraq or have the customers pass the political litmus tests and ubiquitous fees required by custom in Iran. So, while we may have fewer SAMs, the end result might be that the ones ready for use are fresher.
By planning ahead, something the terrorists are (and must be) rather adept at, a number of SAMs could be cached within range of the known flight paths. Something I would surely do if I were on the other side, because opening the airport to commercial traffic at some near point is a dead cinch ... and the Iraqi guerrilla campaign is a classic stay-behind mission.
So the big day arrives and first civilian flight touches down amidst the fanfare and folderol that is de rigor for such occasions – and nothing untoward unfolds due to the slew of security that I know will absolutely be deployed for that day or week. But shortly, the forces assigned will have to diminish as there are still military tasks to be accomplished and the sort of manpower that will have to have been applied cannot be maintained.
At this point, if I were the terrorist commander, I would activate my several small pre-positioned SAM teams and take aim at an inbound passenger jet ... say a nice fat A-300 or a 737. Now you should know that the only Western airlines to equip its planes with anti-missile decoy systems is Israel's El Al, and so it is that I will have briefed my teams in recognizing that airline's distinctive paint schemes.
The terrorist commander will also alert the Western media about some juicy street demonstration or two that will take place along the either end of the flight paths, as it is better that they should film all the action as it happens, because the media is the critical ingredient in this mix.
The goal here is to provide a real Pulitzer quality photo opportunity. Because you and I already know the hand-wringing media fest that will ensue with the expected close-ups of wreckage, body parts, hospital admitting areas and the tearful relatives with cameras pushed in their faces after being dragged from their private grief by the usual pack of ghouls.
Because the terrorists know that the Bush administration is going to be facing off with the Dean camp in 10 months or so, this is a picture-perfect opportunity to undermine the chances of re-election. You can also just hear the shrill whining of the usual political suspects as they begin the second-guessing, finger pointing and nitpicking that is an inevitable part of an election year.
What is truly hoped for is that the terrorists will get a different American leader to treat with, in high hopes that this new one will cut and run – if not immediately, then eventually. With the economy picking up, the terrorists know they must do something to affect the outcome in the presidential race ... and this scenario fits in well.
I know that the CPA has already planned for the mass casualties amongst the other concerns, but they better plan to make those anti-missile systems a requirement as well, no matter what the howls from the carriers may sound like. The terrorists are betting we don't have that kind of foresight ... but we'd better.
Let it be known that if there's even ONE attempt to shoot down an airliner, the neighborhood gets bulldozed. No exceptions.
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