The mkt participants remember the respective disasters they suffered during the winters of 2000-2001 and 2002-2003, and, rather than repeat them, have swung rather too far over to the other side, the ''we'd better buy it now than wait'' team.
In 3 to 5 weeks, we'll know if their fears are justified. There is forecast (rightly or wrongly, I've no clue) a Siberian Express due on or about 22 December. 10-day+ forecasts, in my experience in the NG mkt, are about 40% accurate -- but LARGE numbers of players, both users and specs, simply will no longer wait to find out about the accuracy.
It's very curious in one sense. We entered this heating season with 3.35 (give or take) TCF in the ground, and Canada nearly full up, too. But, the first cold patch and the first East Coast snowstorm (which, btw, generates far less NG usage than a dry mass of polar air), and the mkt goes bazoo.
Market memory, no more and no less. If January should prove out to be down 10-15% in HDDs compared to the 5- or 3-year averages, we may easily see NG down $3.00, even possibly $4.00 per MMBTU by 15-20 February.