A rare statement on FR... I agree with everything you said!
FWIW, I've learned that I never understood practical economics until I began trading. The mkt participants are ruthlessly rational, each according to his/her requirements as to supply and/or demand. Gov't can (and of course does) screw around with the mktplace, but supply and demand
will out, usually in the shorter term than the longer.
BTW, to be fair -- if we should see HDDs from now to, say, 16 January, well above the multi-year averages, and drawdowns in storage above, too, we can **EASILY** see $15 spot NG, even over $25 in certain areas.
The ball is up in the air; NG is not, at this time, even a marginally tradeable mkt, but one fit only for gamblers.
FReegards, and a very Merry Christmas to you!