ZELL MILLER!
Posted on 12/10/2003 3:56:03 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
Georgia, before the Soviet Union absorbed it, owed its sovereignty indirectly to protection from the Ottoman Empire in Turkey. However, Turkey largely sat out events leading up to Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze’s November 23 resignation. Now that Russia is pressuring Georgia’s interim government though, Turkey is stepping up diplomatic activity in Georgia to offset Russia’s potential gains in influence.
On December 3, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer called Georgian interim President Nino Burjanadze to pledge Turkey’s continuing support for Georgia, the spokesman of the president’s office told the Turkish media. According to Sezer’s spokesman, the president stressed that protecting Georgia’s independence and territorial integrity as well as strengthening stability, security and prosperity is "very important" for Ankara. The same week, Georgian Ambassador to Turkey Tariel Lebanidze traveled to Ankara to meet Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. Gul stressed that Ankara would do what it could to extend financial and moral support to Tbilisi, the Turkiye newspaper reported.
Some history-minded analysts in Turkey, watching officials from the United States and Russia react to the "revolution of roses" in Georgia, have rekindled talk of a "Great Game," or epic battle for Central Asian resources. In the original Great Game, Tsarist Russia fought the British empire. In the current context, neither Russia nor the United States can impose a unilateral agenda. Some commentators say that Turkey has to be more active and vigilant in pursuing its own interests in the South Caucasus. In this context, Ilnur Cevik, editor-in-chief of the English-language Turkish Daily News, agrees. But he criticizes the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan for being "mysteriously inactive" in the a crisis in Georgia, which he terms "our backyard."
The Turkish Daily News also quoted former president and veteran politician Suleyman Demirel in a provocative vein. In a November 29 piece, Demirel calls Turkey "lost in this region," likening its silence on Georgia to its failure to forcefully oppose the American-led invasion of Iraq. Demirel has long advocated a Caucasus Stability Pact among the countries of the South Caucasus, to protect against Russian advantage. He asserts that Russia is now seizing that advantage in Georgia.
Since any crisis in the geopolitically sensitive Caspian can shift delicate economic and military balances, every group considers itself under siege. The bulk of Russian strategists posit that Moscow should defensively try to work its influence on Georgia in order to counter a joint Washington-Ankara agenda. According to the political analyst Ilya Kotov, writing in Moscow’s Izvestiya daily, Russian secret services regularly advise President Vladimir Putin to urgently step up Russian influence in Georgian territory. Most immediately, Kotov and other hawks worry about two big pipelines from Baku, Azerbaijan that are slated to run through Georgia and terminate in Turkey. An oil pipeline is under construction from Baku via Tbilisi to Ceyhan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkey and Russia are at odds in Georgia over natural-resource wealth, and an independent Georgia could strengthen Turkey’s hand.
However, Moscow has other claims on Georgian energy. Russia’s state gas monopoly Gazprom supplies almost all of Georgia’s gas. In addition, according to a recent deal Gazprom cut with the Shevardnadze government, it has the right to expand Georgia’s gas network. Some analysts think Gazprom may try to use Georgia as an export route for its own gas to Turkey, getting there before the trans-Caucasian pipeline is built.
Perhaps to head off such a ploy, Georgia’s new leadership has stressed its desire to foster pipeline construction to Turkey. "The realization of the [BTC] project should be sped up; we’ve already discussed this issue during the consultations with [pipeline operator] British Petroleum," former opposition leader and presidential candidate Mikhail Saakashvili told the Moskovskie novosti weekly. "Even more important, as we see it, is the construction of the gas pipeline that will compete with the Russian pipe running from Novorossiisk." [For background, see the Eurasia Insight archive].
While many Turkish strategists see pipeline considerations spurring warmer ties between Tbilisi and Ankara, it is not clear what steps Turkey would take if Georgia’s breakaway provinces openly rebel against the new government.
The idea of Turkish overtures in Ajaria, the most politically dynamic breakaway province, has already prompted Russian speculation. In what appears a symbolic "preventive move," a recent article published in the Russian government’s Rossiiskie vesti newspaper suggests that Turkish secret services – National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and Main Intelligence Directorate of the Turkish General Staff – have stepped up espionage activity in former Soviet republics. Their objective, the commentary says, is to "strengthen Turkey’s influence in the geopolitically important regions of the Caucasus and Central Asia." One of the MIT’s stations, the commentary argues, operates in Batumi, Ajaria’s capital.
Russia has figured out that besides fighting the Saudis in Southern Russia they too have no interest in allowing the Caucasus and Central Asia produce and export their oil and gas because, like the Saudis, they are suppliers more than consumers. Oil consuming nations want Georgia to be stable because pipelines from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey are uncluttered with nations that have their own production interests, and won't interfere but profit. Hence the BTC pipeline, which by the way, would follow a shorter route if it ran through "Christian" Armenia, but Armenia really hates Turkey and is allied with "Muslim" Iran, and Iran certainly does not want competitive pipelines open. Indeed, Iran possibly played its cards via the recent bombings in Turkey, the first targets being Jewish, which excited and mollified the jihadi dupes, but was only a deflection from the next targets - the British Embassy (Britain a big backer of the BTC line) and one of the British banks funding the line. Reportedly Lloyds, another British bank funding the line, pulled out just after the bombings, ie, they got the message. So far Russia has not deployed its threatened "eco-terrorist" front groups.
Now throw into the mix the Russian Mob, local mafioso, politicians acting like mafioso, Russian Oligarchs, Bush-hater George Soros helping Bush get rid of Sheverdnaze, phony ecological front groups protesting pipelines, Pankisi, and Russian Imperial nostalgia.
This, so far, is my understanding of this Georgia business.
Any help appreciated.
Oh and you turk so innocent. So many turk smugglers in area Magrellia and Abhazia (western Georgia) that you can spit and not miss one. They smuggles scrap iron by paying locals to tear up own infrastructure...says much also of locals who raid each other village to steal power line and irrigation pipe and sell to Turk. In October 2002, Georgia cost guard opens fire on Turkish smuggler ship, boarding it...Turks of course make huge stink. Turks also work hard to break up Georgia. Ajaria close allie for Turkey (sw region Georgia) and Turkey open contract with Abhazia to mine coal...send 700 turks and families there.
Chechins for long time armed and equip by Turks, till Chechin commit terror in Turky.
As for Georgia allow to explain: Abhazia and Ossessia (South) both official suceeded. Both Orthodox Christian. Ajaria unofficial full autonomy and allied with Turk and is Muslim. In south of Georgia (Armenian district) is Russian posts, they provide protection to Armenians...why? From whom? Why from Georgians.
In 1991 Gumsaporda elected president. First thing he do is ban all other parties. Then he start ethnic war to either Georgianize other 40% of population (Abhaz, Ajari, Ossession, Armenian, Azerbajani, Russian, Kish [Chechin]). Minorities fight hard and allie with Gumsaporda opposition, led by Shevi. Shevi win civil war and kill Gumsa but then turns around in 1992 and start own ethnic cleansing....but in long run, by 1994, loose that too.
You want speak racism, let me tell you: in Georgia my wife's original last name Armenian after father. Mother's was Russian. Her mother change name to own mother's georgian name and then daughters change to new mother's name...because if not proper last name (aka: Georgian) then not allowed to university or hold job.
I live in Armenian quarter, Avalumbari...every day gas and light cut off, while right outside is light area. In ancient and active Armenian Orthodox cemetary is bing built huge Georgian Orthodox cathedril and shopping center. You think that they at least move bodies? Hahaha, after looting corpses they just dig up and plow up land and put foundation into cursed thing.
As for Kish/Chechins, yes at first they fight against Georgians, but they mercenary and Georgians gives them and allied Arab aid so then in 2001 they use they to attack Abhazia (first hit was Armenian village where 14 women and childrens and one militia member killed) as excuse to attempt invade Abhazia....Bilisi support daily "partisan"/armed thug attacks into Abhazia. So after 2001 Abhaz finally understand that no peace ever with Georgians and thus decide to become part Russia instead independent so Russia protect them.
Here is key difference, never in Chechinya Russia attempt to Russianize Chechins and during semi-independence, Chechins constantly crawl from own hole to make new holes in all surrounding areas. But Abhazia and Ossessia not go past borders or send troops and only wanted to be left peacefully...and they not start war but ask for autonomous sectionn in Federal Georgia...told no, and told to change culture and own languages and cultures forbidden.
That friend is reality of area.
As for pipeline, it worthless, allow for numbers:
At max capacity, Azerbajan produce 4 million barrels in day. Half used by local economy. Now pipeline made for 6 million. Also, no firm want part of this but Klinton offer $18 billion US for firms to go along. Also pipeline run directly through reservar and springs of Bejormi, excellent and renowned mineral waters of Georgia and one of only major export and major businessman owner who is enemy of many in power before and now...he honoest businessman...see? So pipeline also in court tied up.
Any question?
You forget mention, Georgian Orthodox bishops run gambling houses and contraband (who search priest's car?). At same time, last Georgian king was Armenian who then abdicate when tired of dealing with insanity. Georgia at that time protectorate of Russia and Alexander I (who not want territorial expension and kept trying to sell Napolian on European coombaya....boy that fail) become Tsar of Georgia too. That when Russia then fully drawn to fight with Chechins, who practice slavery on what now called north Chechin plain (now as in last 70 years when bastard soviets redraw borders) on Russian colonists and into Georgia on various group there. They then sell to Turkey (surprise), Persia and Khiva.
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