Posted on 12/09/2003 8:19:55 PM PST by deport
Texas GOP split on Hutchison, PerryPoll on hypothetical matchups has two officials neck and neck
09:27 PM CST on Tuesday, December 9, 2003
AUSTIN – If voters went to the polls today, Gov. Rick Perry would face a tough task winning re-election against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, according to the latest Texas Poll.
Texas Republicans are evenly divided when asked whether they would give the governor another term or replace him with Ms. Hutchison, the survey said.
According to the poll, 45 percent of registered Republicans favor Ms. Hutchison and 41 percent prefer Mr. Perry. The rest were undecided.
Mr. Perry would more easily handle a challenge from Republican Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, defeating her 68 percent to 17 percent in a hypothetical election matchup, according to the poll.
Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said the survey is good news for Ms. Hutchison, who has the highest job approval ratings of any elected official in the survey.
"I see her as the strongest Republican in Texas right now," said Mr. Jillson. "Perry divides people. He's been essentially flat over the last year, whereas Kay has been trending up. That suggests Kay has real strength should she decide to make that move."
Remap controversy
Mr. Perry, who won re-election easily last year, has been criticized for calling back-to-back special sessions of the Texas Legislature to redraw congressional boundaries to benefit the GOP.
The governor has defended his actions, saying the resulting map, which is now being tested in court, more fairly reflects the state's political makeup.
"I've found that if you call them back enough times, they will get the job done," Mr. Perry said Monday.
At the same time, some critics say the Republican governor has damaged the spirit of bipartisanship touted by his predecessor, George W. Bush.
In recent months, Ms. Hutchison and Mrs. Strayhorn have been mentioned by political observers as strong contenders to unseat the governor. While Ms. Hutchison has kept mum, Mrs. Strayhorn has been outspoken in taking the Republican governor to task on several fronts.
Both Mr. Perry's term as governor and Ms. Hutchison's term in the Senate are up in 2006.
A spokeswoman for the Republican governor on Tuesday dismissed the results, saying, "The only poll that counts is on Election Day."
"One need look no further for proof than last week when polls had Oklahoma beating Kansas State by two touchdowns," said Kathy Walt.
Ms. Hutchison issued a statement saying she won't "make a decision about 2006 until at least a year from now."
"Right now," she said, "I'm focusing on my job in the Senate."
As for Mrs. Strayhorn, spokesman Mark Sanders said she is pleased that Texans in the survey give her high marks as state comptroller and that "any discussion about her seeking higher office would be premature and speculative."
The poll, conducted Nov. 14 to Dec. 6 by the Scripps Research Center, surveyed 1,000 Texans by phone. They were selected at random. The overall margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the results could vary by that amount in either direction.
Only registered Republican primary voters were asked about their preferences in a GOP primary pitting Mr. Perry, Ms. Hutchison and Mrs. Strayhorn. Because it was a smaller group, the margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Job approval ratings
According to the survey, Texans give Mr. Perry mixed marks on the job he is doing as governor – 46 percent saying he's doing an excellent or good job and 44 percent saying he's only fair or poor.
By contrast, Ms. Hutchison's job approval is 62 percent. A quarter of voters give her low marks.
The results mark a steady rise in Ms. Hutchison's popularity among Texas voters since the summer of 1995, when just over half the electorate gave her a positive job approval rating.
Mrs. Strayhorn's approval rating was 46 percent with 22 percent disapproving. About a third of those surveyed had no opinion.
"I take Rick Perry to be a placeholder," said Mr. Jillson. "He moved up when Bush went to Washington. He has never really established himself in the minds of Texas voters or even Republicans in a warm and positive way.
"He's there, he's doing fine, he's fighting the fight," he said. "But there are others like Hutchison who have a more positive feel among Republicans and more crossover."
In a hypothetical matchup for lieutenant governor, incumbent Republican David Dewhurst is the preference of 44 percent of GOP voters over Mrs. Strayhorn, who gets 28 percent. The rest are undecided.
The survey also found that President Bush, who has always enjoyed high approval ratings in Texas, has seen his numbers slip to 58 percent. Forty-one percent disapprove of Mr. Bush's job as president.
The latest numbers mark a seven-point drop in Mr. Bush's approval among Texans since August and a 13-point drop since June, according to the survey.
E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com
|
|
SOURCE: Republicans who responded to a random Texas Poll survey of 1,000 adults conducted Nov. 14 to Dec. 6 by the Scripps Research Center. The margin of error for these two questions was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
He'd be elected, hands down.
They say that 46% give Perry an excellent rating while 44% rate him as fair or poor.
Wouldn't it be logical to seperate out the fair and poor numbers?
Oh, in other words, they did no work to make sure that it was representative of actual Republican voters.
And what's this nonsense about "registered Republicans"? Ain't no such thing here.
Perhaps they meant "self-declared Republicans."
Yeah, what a crock for The Dallas Morning News to put this up.bttt to read after my workout. Thanks for posting and the ping ...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.