I was thinking of it from the perspective that DOLE WAS CHOSEN BY THE MEDIA TO BE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE.
In that case, Dean = McCain -- and will probably be just as successful in the primaries (a few early good showings sue to the hype, then massive crash once people get to know him).
In the end, it will be Gephardt(D) = Dole(R) -- a party hack who gets the nod because the rest of the field is so weak and he is "rewarded" for being a long-time party hack. The only difference is that Gephardt will be nowhere near as effective as Dole.