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Thanks for the ping. Here's a bit from the press briefing "backgrounder":

SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: "Some of the topics that came up of course were Taiwan. I would like to say a few words along those lines. I think the President made a very clear comment in response to the question on Taiwan and the cross-Strait relationship. I want to stress here that the President's top goal is preserving the peace in the Taiwan Strait. We are in no way abandoning support for Taiwan's democracy or for the spread of freedom. Indeed, on that regard, I would like to point that we think the spread of freedom is important to all countries, and that's a topic that we discuss with the Chinese very frequently, and did today.
However, though, we're seeing developments on both side of the Strait, forcing us to drop some of the ambiguity that has been in the policy in the past. I will stress here that the President did tell the Chinese in no uncertain terms that we, the United States, would have to get involved if China tried to use coercion or force to unilaterally change the status of Taiwan. And it was in that context that we have been telling Taiwan increasingly clearly that we would likewise not welcome any moves on the part of Taiwan to unilaterally change the status quo.
The President was clear, there are things going on on Taiwan in the context of a hotly contested election that give us -- give us pause. We will speak out if that is necessary.

As I said at the party, I don't think that China would be able to successfully invade Tiawan, nor do I think that they would use nukes -- there would be public oppostion in China to any attempts by the mainland to use force. An invasion is more likely to backfire and bring down the government as have any unifying result. The more likely scenario is continued blustering while Tiawan is somewhat Finlandized by China's economic power. Keep in mind that Tiawan is defacto independent right now and has had more influence on China than the reverse.

Tiawan has had a rocky history with the mainland for the last several hundered years. They have been separate for over a century -- first as a Japanese possesion and then as Chiang Kai-shek's autonomous (and authoritarian) Republic.