Posted on 12/06/2003 8:44:29 AM PST by OESY
Watching presidential politics lately, I've been thinking back to when I was 13 years old and had my heart broken for the first time.
It was 1972, and I was antiwar and infatuated with Senator George McGovern. But as I handed out McGovern leaflets in Yamhill County, Ore., I was greeted as if I were the Antichrist. Soon afterward, Mr. McGovern was defeated in a landslide.
As Howard Dean will probably be, if the Democrats nominate him.
It is, of course, the Democrats' privilege to stand on principle, embrace the man they admire most and leap off a cliff together. Political parties have a hoary tradition of committing principled suicide, as the G.O.P. did with Barry Goldwater in 1964 and, most masochistically, the Democrats did three times with William Jennings Bryan from 1896 to 1908.
Yet my guess is that the Democratic faithful are being not so much high-minded as muddle-headed. Many Democrats so despise President Bush that they don't appreciate what a strong candidate he will be in November, and they don't grasp how poorly Mr. Dean is likely to fare in battleground states.
Mr. Bush beat Mr. Dean, 52 percent to 41 percent, in a recent Pew poll. Meanwhile, the economy appears to be strengthening in time for the election. Of the 51 economic forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, all but one expect the economy to grow more rapidly in 2004 than it has in the last 33 months.
Against the Bush juggernaut, Mr. Dean faces three disadvantages.
First, geography. The only Democrats who have won the popular presidential vote since John Kennedy took office (when the Southern boom started) have all been Southerners: Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Al Gore. Swing states are mostly in the South and Midwest, so the key for both parties is to find a candidate who can seduce "Reagan Democrats," like Ohio steelworkers and Tennessee tobacco farmers. Not another Michael Dukakis.
Second, style. Angry bluster rouses the party faithful, but it frightens centrists. The last two presidents who were fervently hated, Richard Nixon and Mr. Clinton, both won two terms; today's liberal disgust could do the same for Mr. Bush by leading to a nominee like Mr. Dean, who warms the hearts of the party's core but leaves others cold. Furious liberals already bear some responsibility for the situation because enough of them voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 to sink Al Gore.
Moreover, Mr. Dean is smart, but he knows it. America's heartland oozes suspicion of Eastern elitists, and Mr. Dean's cockiness would exacerbate that suspicion. President Clinton oozed charm and was fluent in Southern ("even a blind hog can find an acorn," he'd say scornfully), while Mr. Dean needs a Berlitz course in self-deprecating folksiness.
Mr. Dean's recent remarks about Southern men and Confederate flags showed both his awareness of this problem and his ineptitude in addressing it. He also described the episode as a "huge contretemps," and I seriously doubt that anybody who publicly uses the word "contretemps" can ever be elected president.
You get the feeling that if Mr. Dean and Mr. Bush were stuck together in a small Missouri town, Mr. Dean would lecture farmers about Thomas Paine's writings, while Mr. Bush would have the cafe crowd in stitches by doing impersonations of Mr. Dean.
The third problem is biography. Mr. Dean may be the one Democrat who is even more blue-blooded than Mr. Bush and who has an even lamer excuse for dodging Vietnam. Mr. Dean grew up on Park Avenue in an old aristocratic family, and after getting his medical deferment from the draft, he moved to Aspen to ski. Unlike other politicians, Mr. Dean doesn't even pretend to be particularly religious, and that's a major political weakness in the battleground states.
Don't get me wrong. I agree with Mr. Dean on many issues, and I admire his willingness to oppose our Iraq invasion from the beginning. But shiny-eyed teenagers who distribute leaflets for him in places like Yamhill County are going to get very cold stares — and end up heartbroken.
If the Democrats are serious about governing, they should remember the words of one of their nominees, Adlai Stevenson. After one of his typically brilliant campaign speeches, someone shouted out to Stevenson from the crowd that he had the votes of all thinking Americans.
Stevenson shouted back, saying that wasn't enough: "I need a majority!"
In a bit of down home humor, let me say I thought Kristof's squealing like a stuck pig was worth sharing.
Obviously, I was inspired by Bill Clinton, the former Tyson's beneficiary who while oozing charm from every pore, oiled his way across the floor and famously uttered: "Even a blind hog can find an acorn"
It is their privilege but not their practice.
ROTFLOL!!!!!
ROTFLOL
I can't believe the rats are actually going to nominate this nasty little psychotic leftist moron.
And I thought no rat Presidential canidate could ever be more unelectable than Dukakis!!
The rat convention will be a scream
GO DEAN GO!!!!!!!!!!
Dean will get all the votes of the wrong-thinking voters.
Those voters that think with their hearts, souls and purses will vote for Bush!
Ah, so that's were those shoe marks came from. My chiropractor and I have been baffled for years!
LOL!!! I never thought I'd enjoy reading anything written by Krugman-lite, but here it is!
1980
85,496,851 Total Votes. 52.6% of Eligible Voters.
| Candidate | Party | Popular Vote | Electoral College | Percent |
| Ronald Reagan (CA) George Bush (TX) |
Republican | 43,901,812 | 489 | 50.8% |
| Jimmy Carter (GA) Walter Mondale (MN) |
Democrat | 35,483,820 | 49 | 41.0% |
| John Anderson (IL) | Independent | 5,719,437 | 0 | 6.6% |
| Ed Clark (CA) | Libertarian | 921,299 | 0 | 1.1% |
National Conventions
Republican: Detroit, MI 7/14/80
Democrat: New York, NY 8/11/80
Ronald Reagan (R): 489 Jimmy Carter (D): 49
width="324" height="265">
1984
"It's morning again in America"
92,641,042 Total Votes. 53.1% of Eligible Voters.
| Candidate | Party | Popular Vote | Electoral College | Percent |
| Ronald Reagan (CA) George Bush (TX) |
Republican | 54,455,000 | 525 | |
| Walter Mondale (MN) Geraldine Ferraro (NY) |
Democrat | 37,577,000 | 13 | 40.5% |
| David Berland (CA) | Libertarian | 228,314 | 0 | |
| Lyndon LaRouche (VA) | Independent | 78,807 | 0 |
National Conventions
Republican: Dallas, TX 8/20/84
Democrat: San Francisco, CA 7/16/84
Ronald Reagan (R): 525 Walter Mondale (D): 13
width="326" height="264">
1988
"Read My Lips, No New Taxes"
TOTAL: 91,594,136 Total Votes. 50.1% of Eligible Voters.
| Candidate | Party | Popular Vote | Electoral College | Percent |
| George H.W. Bush (TX) James Danforth Quayle (IN) |
Republican | 426 | ||
| Michael Dukakis (MA) Lloyd Bentson (MN) |
Democrat | 111 | ||
| Lloyd Bentson (MN)** Michael Dukakis (MA) |
Democrat | 1 | ||
| Ron Paul (TX) | Libertarian | 431,616 | 0 | |
| Lenore Fulani (NY) | New Alliance | 217,200 | 0 | |
| David Duke (LA) | Populist | 46,910 | 0 | |
| Eugene McCarthy (MN) | Consumer | 30,903 | 0 |
**One elector from West Virginia voted for Lloyd Bentsen for President and Michael Dukakis for Vice President.
National Conventions:
Republican: New Orleans, LA 08/15/1988
Democrat: Atlanta, GA 07/18/1988
George Bush (R): 426 Michael Dukakis (D): 111 Lloyd Bentson (D): 1
HOME
I also agree with your assessment.
FOXNews showed one add that is being played that equates interchangeable pictures of the DimWit of the day with Every DimWit Pres Candidate that has lost since Hubert Humprhrey by showing the picture with the words pledged to raise taxes and LOST then the current DimWit and they still think this is a winner.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.