Early Flood of Political Ads Saturates Airwaves in Iowa

NY Times ^ | 12/4/03 | Jim Rutengerg

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

Viewers can hardly turn on a television here without seeing Senator John Kerry talking about his recent bout with prostate cancer, Representative Richard A. Gephardt vowing to fight for the middle class or Howard Dean emphasizing his opposition to the Iraq war.

Iowans, in fact, have never before been bombarded with this many advertisements from this many candidates so early in presidential campaign season, strategists and analysts say. The barrage, they say, underscores the increasing belief by several of the major campaigns that Iowa may be more critical than in the past in determining who ends up with the Democratic nomination.

The four major Democratic candidates competing in Iowa — Dr. Dean, Mr. Kerry, Senator John Edwards and Mr. Gephardt — have run at least 4,450 spots in Des Moines alone since January, according to new figures to be released on Thursday by the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project, which monitors political television advertising.

At this point in 1999, the Republican and Democratic candidates had run at least 850 advertisements, combined, in Des Moines, according to the University of Wisconsin research group, which also noted a priority shift, pointing out that where advertising in New Hampshire was twice that of Iowa in 1999, the situation is now reversed.

"This is the most advertising on TV I've seen since I turned 18 to vote," said Donna Kohn, 33, a registered Democrat shopping at the Valley West mall on Wednesday. "Already, you just don't feel like turning on the TV."

The competition over the airwaves is most ferocious in Iowa but is by no means limited to this state. In the nation's top 75 media markets, the Democratic candidates have bought at least 12,700 spots. By December, 1999, candidates for both parties had bought at least 4,834 in those markets, according to the Advertising Project, whose system does not count cable advertisements.

The huge bump in advertising this campaign season has surprised experts, some of whom believed that new campaign finance rules, coupled with an increase in Internet use — offering candidates new ways to reach voters while further diffusing television audiences — would stanch the ever-expanding growth of political advertising, at least during the Democratic primaries.

"These numbers are striking," said Ken Goldstein, who is the director of the Advertising Project. "If we compare it to any sort of campaign, or when we compare it to the past, it's a lot. Gore-Bradley was a serious race. Forbes-Bush was a serious race in terms of television advertising. We're not comparing this to a dog-catcher race."

Several forces seem to be making the difference, analysts said, not the least of which is a crowded field that, despite momentum by Dr. Dean, still has no hands-down front-runner and includes some candidates who were not well known before the summer.

Two candidates in particular, Dr. Dean, the former governor of Vermont, and Mr. Edwards, of North Carolina, decided to begin advertising early and often as a way to introduce themselves to voters. They are the top two advertising spenders, with at least $2.8 million and $2.2 million respectively, nationwide, the Advertising Project says.

That forced others to follow, with Mr. Kerry's campaign spending at least $1.8 million and Mr. Gephardt's spending close to $1 million since January. The field at large has spent roughly $8.2 million, according to the Advertising Project, which did not provide a comparison to advertising dollars spent at this point in 1999.

More recent decisions by Dr. Dean and Mr. Kerry to opt out of the federal campaign finance system — eliminating caps on how much they can spend in given states — only guaranteed a continued bombardment of advertisements.

"The stakes are very high for everybody," said Bill Carrick, a media strategist for Mr. Gephardt, who won this state in 1988 and who most polls show in a tight race with Dr. Dean.

Mr. Gephardt's strategists consider Iowa to be a must-win, which would explain why this state has seen more than 80 percent of his roughly 2,300 spots.

For Dr. Dean, a victory in Iowa would neutralize Mr. Gephardt. A strong third-place showing by Mr. Kerry or Mr. Edwards, meanwhile, would help either one gain momentum.

"I think that Iowa is a place where win, place and show really count," said Mary Beth Cahill, Mr. Kerry's campaign manager. "I'm not going to handicap what position we want to be in at the end, but we are going to exert every weapon at our disposal, on the ground and in the air."

(Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut are not competing in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19, betting that no one emerges with overwhelming momentum.)

Some experts said they wondered how much good all the advertising would do here despite what has been a forward march in commercials over the past few election cycles. With its first-in-the-nation voting status and a caucus system requiring party members to attend hours-long meetings before choosing candidates, its electorate was long thought to be too politically educated to fall for slick advertising.

Matthew Dowd, a pollster and chief strategist of the Bush campaign, said advertising is often ineffective in early states, where candidates campaign so hard that many voters get to meet them personally.

"I've never seen advertising have an impact in any early states," he said. He added, "The amount of money they've spent on advertising, and the fact that nobody has locked this thing up at all, or locked down their supporters in any major way, is an amazing situation."

Even Democrats have noted that for all of the money Mr. Edwards has spent in Iowa, $1 million by the Advertising Project's estimate, he still trails Mr. Gephardt, Dr. Dean and Mr. Kerry in some polls.

Nick Baldick, Mr. Edwards' campaign manager, said advertising has met his aim, which was to introduce Mr. Edwards to voters and entice them to come and see him speak in their towns. "Most of these voters had never heard of John Edwards," he said, adding that polls show Mr. Edwards's favorability ratings rising. "We had to introduce them and interest them."

Dean campaign officials and even some competitors have likewise credited advertising with helping establish him nationally, and in Iowa.

Still, Democrats would be wise to tread carefully with advertisements. "It really makes me mad that Howard Dean started doing his commercials, like, a year ago," complained Sarah Nowakowski, 22, an Iowa State University student shopping at the Valley West mall on Wednesday.

And some Republicans said they would remember the anti-Bush tone of the Democrats' advertisements now when the general election comes in November. "They ought to have respect for our president. The things they are saying are just despicable," said Mary Lou Horner, 65, a registered Republican shopping at the mall. "Why does our Christmas have to be ruined by these ads?"