Chinese military ready for "necessary" casualties over Taiwan

AFP ^ | 03 December 2003

[Tailgunner Joe]

Senior Chinese military officers warned Taiwan it was staring into the abyss of war and the mainland was ready for "necessary" casualties if the island pursued its independence drive.

The comments in the state-run Outlook Weekly magazine, carried by the Xinhua news agency and major websites, followed Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's plan to hold a referendum on the island's future.

Two People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers quoted by the magazine said Chen would be held responsible if war breaks out and said separatists "will be treated the same way war criminals are dealt with elsewhere in the world".

"Chen has touched on the mainland's bottomline on the Taiwan question," said Luo Yuan, a senior colonel with the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences.

"He is actually playing with fire. It is very dangerous -- and immoral as well -- for Chen and his predecessor Lee Teng-hui to take the restraints and tolerance of the mainland as signs of weakness.

"If they refuse to come to their senses and continue to use referenda as an excuse to seek Taiwan independence, they will push Taiwan compatriots into the abyss of war," he said.

Premier Wen Jiabao has indicated China was willing to "pay any price" to deter Taiwan independence, and these prices were outlined by Major General Peng Guangqian, also with the Academy.

They include boycotts of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, decreasing foreign investment, worsening foreign relations, economic recession, and "necessary" casualties of the PLA, he said in the magazine.

"All these prices are bearable when compared with the Taiwan issue, which is of the highest interest for the Chinese nation," he said.

"If Taiwan separatists want to gamble on it (by pushing for independence), they will pay a heavy price and be defeated with shame. We will definitely intervene."

Chen, from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, said at the weekend that China's deployment of 496 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan had prompted him to push for a vote to safeguard the country's sovereignty.

He argued a referendum law passed last week by parliament allowed him to stage a "defensive" vote on "issues of national security concern" in the event of a foreign threat.

China, which regards Taiwan as part of Chinese territory awaiting reunification, has repeatedly threatened to attack the island should it declare formal independence.

[DeuceTraveler]

If Taiwan succeeds would Hong Kong and Tibet follow? Hmmm... what a dangerous predicament the Chinese government is in.

[Heatseeker]

Just curious (and this is not the proverbial 'rhetorical question') if and how America's ICBMs and SLBMs are re-targetable? How long does it take?

[RandallFlagg]

Another curious question: How long has it been since China has had a war?

[Heatseeker]

The Chinese-Vietnamese War of 1979 I think.

[KneelBeforeZod]

I heard a suggestion on the radio today... Taiwan should/could/might be waiting for the olympics in china to start...china wont want to look bad with the olympics going on

[RandallFlagg]

Hmm. Sounds like they kinda lost that one. Oh well. Just curious. Thanks.

[Tex_GOP_Cruz]

I can't confirm its accuracy, but the below webpage seems to have very well researched information:

http://www.danshistory.com/nuke.shtml

ICBMs:
"Whereas the old system took 20 hours to manually retarget the entire Minuteman force, today's computerized version can do so in half the time, with essentially instant retargeting on demand for single missiles."

SLBMs:
"An SLBM Strategic Retargeting System (SRS) was approved in 1995. With this system, D-5s will be able to rapidly retarget to any spot in the world. It is the naval analogue to the Minuteman III's REACT targeting upgrade."

[Heatseeker]

MANY thanks to that referral - looks like a lot of info there. I particularly like this quote:

An Air Force officer light-heartedly described the enhanced capabilities as "nuclear war in Windows."

W to China: "Start something with Taiwan and I'll reboot your country." :)

[Heatseeker]

I think it was Deng Xiaoping's way of pitching the Vietnamese high and inside, to use a baseball anaology.

The bad blood between China and Vietnam goes way back and I noted that a US warship (USS Vandegrift) recently paid a port call at Ho Chi Minh City (click here and scroll down). Geostrategically, maybe we should do a deal to use the Cam Ranh Bay facility again. :)

[Quix]

Minutes. Perhaps the number of minutes is classified. I don't know. But it can be pretty quickly, as I understood it some years ago. Poohbah would likely know.

I don't think the retargeting of the missiles is the problem. The problem is the political will.

Then the problem would be the geopolitical stakes, costs, risks, destruction involved.

Then there's the issue of where the puppet masters would be weighing in, to what degree and toward what ends along what sequences of choices and actions etc.

[Heatseeker]

I agree, but speculating is fun. I'm a bad boy, I like the idea of using them like voting in Chicago - early and often. :)

[Quix]

And if China declared with documentable evidence that they had supplied Al-Qaeda with nukes already IN the USA in 5-7 of our largest cities and would release firing codes within X hours unless we withdrew support of Taiwan . . .

What would W do then?

[Quix]

I grieve over emotional pain on almost anyone's part. I grieve over the prospect of killing a deer for needed food.

I certainly have tons of loved ones in both countries.

But there is no kowtowing or compromising with evil tyranny whether it's in Shrillery's mouth or Beijing's arrogance.

Better to die defending the right and freedom, IMHO.

Alas, our recent generations of softy hedonists will likely disagree. And HYPORATS are their champions along with championing Government Global Tyranny.

[Heatseeker]

Cruel as it seems, I think we are targeting the wrong things - or more specifically, we should be configuring the nuclear force to target cities rather than silos. Bring the B-53s (Mk-53s) out of mothballs and build more. Even with soft targets, you get into diminishing-returns land above 2-3 megatons or so, but IMO, there's nothing like a really BIG mushroom cloud over, oh, say Mecca or Bejing, to get your point across. :)

[risk]

Better to die defending the right and freedom, IMHO.

bttt

[Quix]

I don't argue with your point.

I don't think the will is there to do such.

And, unless the stakes are suitably high warranting such . . . would I really like a leader too quickly given to doing such a thing?

[Quix]

Thanks.

ditto.

[Jumper]

The Chinese Mainland Government would do well not to start a war which would destroy much of their mainland infastructure. Any fool on the mainland that thinks economic targets would not be considered of military value if they start a shooting war is greatly mistaken. The Chinese Mainland Military probably is correct in "her" assessment that she is willing to take the casualities.... after all, once the invasion is repelled or even if not, the economic might of China will no longer be in tact.

[Poohbah]

The only thing China can do to really stop Taiwan from declaring independence is to nuke the place flat. Conventional SRBMs won't do nearly enough damage to Taiwan to hinder China; chemical and biological weapons dispersal from SRBMs is problematic at best; this leaves nuclear weapons as the only option.

That move is so irrational that the smart money will look elsewhere to invest, because China might do something else just as cosmically stupid, like invading Siberia (which they regard as "stolen territory").

Incidentally, if China nukes Taiwan, Russia might decide to preemptively nuke China before the Chinese invade Siberia.