Iraqi Freedom's Friend

The New York Post ^ | December 1, 2003 | Amir Taheri

[Pan_Yans Wife]

THOSE making Iraq policy in Washington appear to have found an easy way to explain, and explain away, whatever snag that their changing and contradictory plans may hit at any given time. It consists of one phrase: the Sistani logjam. This refers to Grand Ayatollah Ali Muhammad Sistani, the primus inter pares of Shi'ite clerics in Najaf.

[PoisedWoman]

Taheri is always fascinating. Perhaps we should have a Taheri ping list?

[Pan_Yans Wife]

Ask Doctor Zin to ping you.

[jjm2111]

Huh.

[secretagent]

If there were elections in Iraq today, we would see the Shi'ite vote split among at least three broad groups: moderate Islamists, the left and the liberals (liberals in the European, not the American, sense).

Taheri doesn't see Islamists as a significant faction in Iraq. What a different view of the country than what I had "absorbed".

Provided the Coalition has the will, reasonably free and fair elections could be held in Iraq. It is not Sistani's business to show how. He is not a politician. He is offering his reading of the situation. It is up to the Coalition and the Governing Council, who will get the praise if there is success, to decide whether or not what he says makes sense.

Taheri hedges his bets, and doesn't himself fully endorse elections.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

When Bush claims that democracy is the goal, doesn't he mean it? Bremer may work towards that goal, but will the people of Iraq rise to the occasion? I hope they will... I think they deserve to have their own democracy, after the brutality under Hussein's regime.

[secretagent]

But can they manage self rule in a manner that accords individual rights, I wonder.

If they elect an Ayatollah nutjob or another fascist secular dictator, then democracy will have have failed from premature introduction.

Or perhaps Taheri has it right that we should gamble on democracy, although he implicitly admits it may not work out.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

I believe they have the RIGHT to democracy, I pray they have the will for it.

I keep reminding myself that Rummy admitted democracy is messy. It is! And, it takes a great deal of work. I hope the Iraqi people would be prepared for this work, but it is difficult to divine from the tea leaves, today.

[secretagent]

I support individual rights, but I wonder if the Iraqis, as a culture, can handle democracy, or better, a democratic constitutional republic.

Perhaps we should break the country up into smaller areas, with each practicing self rule at that level before graduating to full federal self government.

I don't know if the Iraquis know how to do that, or even want that. I don't know how much the Baathists have crippled local initiative and respect for individual rights, or whether Iraquis even know what that means.

Remember, Hitler got elected.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

I agree with your concerns.

I will not say that they aren't worthy enough or smart enough to establish a democracy. However, they have been greatly crippled by decades of tyranny. And, there are outside forces that will work against their unity.

I have wondered about three distinct states forming, one for the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shiites. Does that seem applicable to you?

[secretagent]

I have wondered about three distinct states forming, one for the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shiites.

Yes, it seems plausible to me, but I know so little.

Taheri, in a prior article, referred to 18 administrative districts left from the Baathist era, and thought the Americans should make use of that.

Taheri and you may have it correct about the gamble on democracy, and I see Bush headed that way. Hope it works.