Louisiana State Republicans Fight Each Other

Shreveport, LA, Times ^ | 11-28-03 | Hasten, Mike

[Theodore R.]

BATON ROUGE - Just because the Republican Party has lost some hard-fought ground in recent elections is no reason to nail shut the coffin on the current state leadership, says Pat Brister, the state GOP chairman.

But that's what a member of the opposition branch of the party wants.

[Theodore R.]

Early in the U.S. Senate race, Foster held a fund-raiser for incumbent Mary Landrieu, a Democrat

The GOP has to start all over in LA -- Foster worked against the party's interests except at the presidential level, when he stood with Dole and Bush II.

[JohnnyZ]

before even more damage is done to the once proud Louisiana GOP

Once proud? When? What century?

[Theodore R.]

"Proud" may have been the incorrect word to describe the former status of the LA GOP. But 20 years ago, the GOP could "hope" that it would win a Senate seat at some time in the future and perhaps regain the governorship that it had just lost after four years.

Now such hope of winning a Senate seat or even getting back the governorship in less than eight to sixteen years seems impossible. Kathleen Blanco's election not only restored the governorship to "the democracy," it shut off access to both Senate seats for many, many years.

[JohnnyZ]

Now such hope of winning a Senate seat or even getting back the governorship in less than eight to sixteen years seems impossible.

How in the world do you make this stuff up?

[Theodore R.]

There is every likelihood that the Democrats will keep the governorship until 2011 if not until 2019.

There is a good chance that Lt. Governor Landrieu will will the governorship in 2011.

The Mary Landrieu Senate seat is secure through 2008, probably 2020, maybe 2026.

The Breaux Senate seat may open next year with the Democrat Chris John the overwhelming favorite. John could occupy that seat until 2022 or even 2028.

LA senators usually serve as long as they wish or until death takes them from their offices.

There is a narrow window of opportunity for LA Republicans to win anything.

[JohnnyZ]

You said it seemed impossible -- impossible!!! -- to even hope to win any of the three races coming up in the next 8 years. On the one hand, it is unsurprising that Democrats would be favored to remain in control of the senate seats they have held since Roncevalles, and that an incumbent Democrat governor would win a second term, but none of that is new. On the other hand, your rampant pessimism is without doubt unfounded based on the last three contested races in Louisiana, all of which were decided by fewer than 4 points, indicating a very competitive state.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I agree. The Democrats are nowhere near as invincible down here as has been described. I'll bet the same view was held of Georgia in 2002....right before several prominent Democrats including a senator, the governor and the state house and senate leadership were all tossed out in one fell swoop.

Now we're going gonzo because the Democrats had a good two years. I should point out they also had to sweat out those elections because victory was far from asured. I say we're a stone's throw away from winning some races with the right candidate and the right message. LA is a competitive state and no longer the rock solid Democrat bastion it was in the good old days. Does it still lean Dem on many levels? Yep. Is it rock solid for the next century? Nada.

[Pern]

There is every likelihood that the Democrats will keep the governorship until 2011 if not until 2019.

There is a good chance that Lt. Governor Landrieu will will the governorship in 2011.

The Mary Landrieu Senate seat is secure through 2008, probably 2020, maybe 2026.

The Breaux Senate seat may open next year with the Democrat Chris John the overwhelming favorite. John could occupy that seat until 2022 or even 2028.

I see four good reasons to pack up and move. When I moved back in 1995 after my stint in the Navy, I had high hopes for change in the political scene in LA. Those hopes are dashed. Florida is looking real nice again. Or maybe Texas...

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

[Theodore R.]

your rampant pessimism is without doubt unfounded based on the last three contested races in Louisiana,

My rampant pessimism is founded on the election statistics for LA. Since 1956, the GOP has won statewide only 15 (seven presidential, three gubernatorial, three secretary of state, one lt. gov. and one elections commissioner), whereas the Democrats have won well over 200 statewide races in that period.

[JohnnyZ]

You are so far from consistent it borders the unbelievable:

But 20 years ago, the GOP could "hope" that it would win a Senate seat at some time in the future and perhaps regain the governorship that it had just lost after four years.

Right now the GOP can "hope" to win a senate seat. They have a decent shot at BOTH in the next 6 years!!! Not too many states can say that.

And yet you deny it! And say the GOP was better off 20 years ago! And are ready to concede the governorship for 16 years!

My rampant pessimism is founded on the election statistics for LA.

Which show a record of futility. Things are at best getting much better, and at worst staying the same.

[Theodore R.]

I don't think you understand how incumbents lock up Senate seats for a generation or more in LA. The only recent senators who stepped down after JUST 24 years was J. Bennett Johnston, Jr. His colleague Russell Long served 38 years (1948-86). Allen Ellender served 36 years (1936-72). LA senators serve as long as they wish for the most part. Why are you belligerent about a fact of LA election statistics?

[JohnnyZ]

Why are you belligerent about a fact of LA election statistics?

The GOP has a decent shot at both LA senate seats in the next 6 years, which is amazingly hugh on a historical scale. But you say it seems impossible that they would win either. And that somehow the LA GOP is going downhill. Neither of which statements have any relation to reality.

Why be a nattering nabob?

[Theodore R.]

I don't think you still understand. Mary Landrieu is now a permanent senator. Who could there be that could challenge her in 2008? Chris John will succeed John Breaux: it's all a done deal. John will serve as long as he wishes: to 2016, 2022, 2028???