Since Kobey has already admitted to sexual intercourse w/the accuser (no semen, however), the bottom line is whether or not it was rape...forced intercourse. With the other evidence in her panties and the microscopic amount of blood on his shirt, his defense attorney imo can reasonably raise "reasonable doubt" as to whether the act was forcible rape. Only 2 people really know the answer to that.
Just my opinion since I'm not a lawyer.
The vaginal swabs have not been tested, and even though he did not ejaculate, it is still possible it is his. I agree, if it's not I don't see how the threshold of "beyond a reasonable doubt" could be met.
With the other evidence in her panties and the microscopic amount of blood on his shirt
The blood streaks on his shirt were not microscopic. Transcript links are available on the thread.