Since Kobey has already admitted to sexual intercourse w/the accuser (no semen, however), the bottom line is whether or not it was rape...forced intercourse. With the other evidence in her panties and the microscopic amount of blood on his shirt, his defense attorney imo can reasonably raise "reasonable doubt" as to whether the act was forcible rape. Only 2 people really know the answer to that.
Just my opinion since I'm not a lawyer.