Posted on 11/21/2003 6:32:27 AM PST by Fzob
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AL-QAEDA: The group's name again comes up. Experts see new organization, old violence.
INQUIRER FOREIGN STAFF
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - With al-Qaeda being linked to three devastating attacks in Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the last two weeks, the group appears to be leaving a new signature as an increasingly decentralized and unpredictable terrorist network that appears harder to fight. Experts and diplomats said the recent resurgence of al-Qaeda violence also showed that Osama bin Laden's 14-year-old terrorist fraternity was as lethal as ever, despite the U.S.-led war on terrorism. The organization essentially is reinventing itself to compensate for losses in its ranks, they said. At the same time, U.S. intelligence officials said, the United States has diverted more than half the personnel and technology that was targeted on al-Qaeda to the war in Iraq. Bin Laden is believed to have escaped a dragnet in Afghanistan and remains free and in charge, but small cells in at least 50 countries seem to operate independently, striking when conditions suit their purposes and using locals as bombers, experts say. It's unclear how much direction they receive from al-Qaeda's surviving top leaders, such as Saif al-Adel, believed to be in Iran, and bin Laden's second in command, Ayman al-Zawahiri. "As the entity decentralizes, you're going to get a lot more wildcat operations," said Brian Jenkins of the Rand Corp., a policy research group in Washington. Recent attacks underscore al-Qaeda's willingness to strike in Muslim countries, spreading new waves of apprehension in Turkey and in Saudi Arabia, where security forces are pressing a border-to-border crackdown that has crushed dozens of cells and resulted in more than 600 arrests. Experts believe, however, that at least 300 hard-core supporters and more than 1,500 sympathizers remain in the kingdom. "I fully suspect that... the terrorists who are here are planning additional attacks," said a Western diplomat in Riyadh who spoke on condition of anonymity. The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh remains open but is on a heightened state of alert, and the more than 30,000 Americans living in Saudi Arabia were urged to take extra precautions. Counterterror experts say al-Qaeda, a loose-knit network whose name means "the base," has mutated in reaction to a sustained U.S. assault. 'A second stage' In both Saudi Arabia and Turkey, there are indications that local groups have adopted al-Qaeda's ideology and are trying to duplicate its methods without much external direction, said Daniel Benjamin, a former White House counterterrorism expert and coauthor of The Age of Sacred Terror. "We're seeing a different dynamic, sort of a second stage in the development of the radical jihadist" movement, he said. Matthew Levitt, a former FBI counterterrorism analyst now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said use of local groups had meant bombings were less meticulously planned and more often directed against last-minute targets of opportunity. Stopping such attacks "is all but impossible," he said. There also have been hints of sloppiness. In May, a series of car bombings by an al-Qaeda-linked group in Casablanca, Morocco, killed 45, including 12 bombers, but did less damage than intended. And it is unclear whether those who struck the Riyadh compound this month knew it housed primarily Muslim Arabs. A common link? One potential thread in some of the recent attacks is Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian-born operative who may now be in Iran and who is thought to have been behind the assassination last year in Jordan of U.S. diplomat Laurence Foley. Levitt said Zarqawi's operatives may have played a role in Casablanca and also have been active in Turkey. One of them, Abdelatif Mourafik, wanted in the Casablanca bombings, was recently arrested in Turkey. Turkey is an ideal target for al-Qaeda: an overwhelmingly secular Muslim nation that is allied with the United States and Israel. Its size, location and Muslim population also make it an attractive place to operate. "You can hide without hiding," Levitt said. Adel al-Jubeir, the foreign-affairs adviser to Crown Prince Abdullah, Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, describes al-Qaeda's worldwide operation as "a loose federation." The group may be in loose contact with the senior leadership through coded Internet messages or by courier. Cells are often no more than eight to 10 people, each with a specific assignment, such as driving or arranging financing, said the Saudi official. They also often consist of the operative with the most formidable assignment - that of suicide bomber. Contact reporter Warren Strobel at 202-383-6033 or wstrobel@krwashington.com. |
It's alot easier to hide when your majority grassroots population is on your side.
Which makes the bombings in Turkey and elsewhere in the Islamic world rather telling.
They used to have senior leaders that kept the lower-ranking people focused on the mission, instead of letting them bomb whatever turned their fancy. It kept al-Qaeda from doing anything cosmically stupid, like bombing Muslims. That senior leadership--call them adult supervision--has disappeared--gone to Gitmo, gone to hiding, or gone to the grave. And now the kids are running things, and they're not very bright.
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