CDs 'could be history in five years'

You need scissors and a nail file to open a CD - the nail file to slice open that sticky tab. Gets my vote for the worst packaging design EVER. Once inside the box, you've got those skinny plastic bars that keep the liner notes from falling out - you need a nail file to get the notes out. And sometimes the raised spikes that keep the CD in place - fall out, and you have crumbled plastic.

Recommendation: Rosalia de Souza - hot Brazilian samba. What's the new term for music that you can't get out of your head? That's what this music is - Brazilian samba that you'll be singing all day!

CDR = 15c for 680 Mb
Solid state memory = $20 for 128 Mb
Do the math.

Surely you are aware of the incredible advances in memory over the last few years.

By 2008, that 128MB module will be a joke. Like a 386 processor. Memory will be down to a few pennies per gigabyte. We will be talking memory only in terms of gigabytes and terrabytes.

Your entire record collection on a $20 memory module holding hundreds of gigabytes.

Do the math.

You've got MOST of it right but none of us can foretell the future of Radio with 100% accuracy. If you have Cable or Satellite TV service, you're paying for access to signal that is also advertiser supported. Yes, you're paying the signal provider who in turn pays the broadcaster but the revenue stream is just flowing through another step.

"Addressable" cable boxes work two-way and the expected path is that in the future, Nielsen won't be the only entity offering audience estimates of programming for TV just as Arbitron won't have a perpetual lock on providing Radio ratings. As things stand now, you have Nielsen and Arbitron providing ESTIMATES for audience based upon a scientifically/statistically chosen enpaneled sample projected out to the total population. Everyone in the industryexcept for those who benefit from the Estimates wants more accountability and the only way to get TRUE accountability is to have every user monitored. It WILL happen but maybe not in our lifetime.

One thing that has been explored to bypass the need for every reciever be a transciever is to embed inaudible audio into every bit of signal - each with a unique identifier. In fact, this is already happening with commercials. In order to verify what commercial aired where, spots are encoded at the post-production level and monitoring stations collect the data in real time. Arbitron has tested such a system in Wilmington Delaware and Philadelphia but hasn't rolled it out further as of yet. They recriuted people to wear beeper-sized devices which picked up any encoded audio they came in contact with. No speculation here - I work in the business. Now THIS is speculation based upon experience: In the future, those beeper-sized devices will be embedded in recievers and some way will be found for them to report back - totally passive. Through statistical modelling married with geographic data, "they" will not need to know your name but they will be able to tell what demographic you are and fairly accurately determine other personal characteristics. Nielsen currently does this through analysis of viewing pattern data and when it was checked against actual collected data, it was judged to be VERY accurate.

As for XM an Sirius, you'll probably see Sirius either fold or be bought by XM. Both companies are on the edge financially (Sirius with low subscribers and XM with two satellites not operating at their design parameters) and if both fold, someone else will do resurrect the tech.

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