Posted on 11/12/2003 10:15:33 AM PST by Pubbie
Nevada Treasurer Brian Krolicki has created an exploratory committee for a potential run against U.S. Sen. Harry Reid and will travel to Washington, D.C., for the third time today to test if he can mount a successful campaign.
Krolicki, a Republican in his second term as treasurer, described the creation of the committee as a way to find out if he can be a viable candidate and to help determine whether he will run against Reid, the Senate Democratic whip, in 2004.
"It's certainly a daunting task to mount a campaign for federal office," he said Tuesday. "I have to have the right team, the commitments, the resources and, most importantly, my family behind the decisions."
Krolicki has already made two trips to Washington, and has met with the National Republican Senatorial Campaign and potential donors. He said consultants have also touched base with White House political director Karl Rove.
"The conversations and communication is there," Krolicki said. "Mr. Rove is certainly aware of what we're doing."
Krolicki said he plans to spend the next few months exploring whether the encouragement he has gotten "can be buttoned up."
"I need to know what these pledges of help mean," he said. "If we decide to go against Reid, it means we believe I have a legitimate shot to be the next senator from the state of Nevada."
Reid campaign manager Sean Sinclair said Krolicki will be viewed as any other potential opponent.
"From day one starting this campaign, we were concentrating on re-electing Harry Reid," Sinclair said. "That doesn't change no matter who is in the race."
If Krolicki runs he faces an uphill battle against one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington. Reid, first elected in 1986, is seeking his fourth term.
Reid had already raised $3.7 million, including $1 million in the three months ending in September. The campaign goal is to raise $10 million.
Reid has also picked up support from some key Republicans: MGM Mirage Chairman Terrence Lanni, Clark County Sheriff Bill Young, Reno Mayor Bob Cashell and Frank Fahrenkopf, a former Nevada GOP chairman and current chairman of the American Gaming Association.
"We have been successful gathering people across the state and from across the aisle to support the senator," Sinclair said.
Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins, D-Henderson, said he didn't think Krolicki would have much of a chance against Reid.
"Sen. Reid's done so much for the state with his name recognition and his appropriation prowess, and he's deserving of another term," Perkins said. "Reid is the best candidate for that seat."
Krolicki's political consultant, Ryan Erwin, said he suspects Krolicki will have significant national support if he runs.
"The Senate committee and the White House and others in Washington see this an opportunity for a pickup," Erwin said. "Obviously for it to be a pickup, you have to have the right candidate, and that's what Brian needs to figure out."
By organizing an exploratory committee, Krolicki is signifying that he is officially "testing the waters." The Federal Election Commission permits a candidate to use such a committee to conduct polls and other fact-finding measures.
This type of committee often becomes the official FEC campaign committee if the candidate does run.
Krolicki, 43, was first elected to the treasurer's office in 1998 after serving eight years as deputy treasurer under Bob Seale, who went on to become chairman of the Nevada Republican Party. Krolicki, a Stanford University graduate, easily won re-election in 2002 as part of a statewide sweep by Republicans for the six constitutional offices.
Consultants dubbed him part of the GOP's "dream team," and Erwin said Krolicki is a "rising star" in the party.
Lia Roberts, Nevada GOP chairwoman, said Krolicki would be a "fantastic candidate against Reid."
"I think we really have a good chance with him," she said. "He has great name recognition from running twice statewide, and that alone makes him a more viable candidate."
Roberts said Krolicki would have to spend less on name recognition than would other candidates who have not run statewide.
Other political observers said there is no downside for Krolicki to make a bid for the six-year Senate term. He cannot run for re-election to the treasurer's post in 2006 because of term limits, and if he has designs on another state office, like governor, a loss against Reid would not hurt his chances, one Democratic source said.
Richard Ziser, who chaired the successful ballot initiative banning gay marriage in Nevada, said he will definitely be on the Republican primary ballot, regardless of any opponents.
"At this point, it really doesn't matter who gets in the race," Ziser said. "A major objective of the next several months would simply be bumping our campaign up and positioning myself as the candidate."
Ziser recently returned from Washington where he also met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Dan Allen, communications director for the committee, did not place one candidate over another, saying both Ziser and Krolicki made good impressions.
"We're encouraged by some of the conversations we've had," Allen said.
Allen also said he believed Reid could be defeated given the senator's 428-vote victory in 1998.
The national committee had seriously courted Rep. Jim Gibbons to run against Reid. After Gibbons decided not to run, several other potential candidates emerged, with Krolicki and Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller being touted as having the best name recognition.
Heller said he is still considering a run against Reid, but has not yet traveled to Washington to explore the level of support he may have.
"I am going to do this on my own timeline," Heller said. "I should have some kind of decision early next year."
Las Vegas Realtor Jack Woodcock, a Republican, previously told the Review-Journal he would be willing to put as much as $500,000 of his own money into a Senate race. But he also said his decision of whether to run depended on whether Krolicki or Dean, whom he considered top potential candidates, enter the race. He could not be reached for comment Tuesday.
Nevada used to be a "rural Democrat" type state for a long time, similar to the South (many of the people moving there in the late 19th century were Confederate sympathizers), and is how Reid got elected. It may have been conservative, but it wasn't Republican. Ironically, the conversion to a Republican state came because of all the immigrants from California, mostly conservative refugees. A majority of the people who have moved to Nevada from California are Republican, enough so that it changed the balance from Democrat to Republican.
Nevada was "natively" conservative Democrat. It was the huge influx of Republicans from places like California over the last decade that changed the State, exacerbated by Nevada Democrats being in the same position as southern Democrats and switching parties.
Reid, hang onto your socks, is a pro-life Mormon with lots of pro-life supporters. His only real vulnerability in Nevada is if the pro-life Mormon community decides to throw him overboard for all this crap with the judicial nominees (which is about nothing but protecting abortion). Reid has the money, and all of the major industry support already wrapped up in the state from his 30 years in public office. He has brought home pork like Robert Byrd so he is going to be hard to beat.
The only way Reid is going to lose is on social issues which he pretends to support personally but works against so antagonistically in the Senate. His last race was close but he was also running against a guy with a 100% conservative voting record and Reid ran WAY, WAY to the right to do it.
Krolicki is actually quite a good public servant and is a true fiscal conservative with our public funds. Unfortunately, nobody really knows that unless you are the type of person who shows up at party conventions. His biggest benefits are a spottless (so far) reputation as a conservative and GWB being on the top of the ticket.
Nevada is trending more and more GOP. Actually, Democratic office holders are being indicted more often than then are being elected in Nevada. The Dem's have maybe two candidates who would even have a halfway decent chance of winning a statewide office in Nevada. If Reid where to retire, this would be a GOP lock for at least 12 years.
If the GOP is going to take this seat, it is going to be because social issues create turnout. Reid will not want to defend his work with Boxer, Clinton, Kennedy, etc on gays, guns, abortion, school choice, judges or taxes. Reid will want to talk about pork and national security or public projects - anything but social issues.
But until we see how well our nominee will be able to create a wedge between himself and Reid on abortion - - - this race has to be seen at safe Democrat.
I believe people should have a choice whether to run or not. It's not fair to say that every good candidate has the responsibility to run. They only have the responsibility to do what they believe is right for themselves, their family, their party, their state, and their country. Tommy Thompson doesn't like Washington; Mark Green thinks he can do more running for governor; Paul Ryan is a young US Rep who may not be ready for a Senate run. Even Jim Gibbons thinks he's better off running for governor, bless his heart.
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