Iraqi insurgency is waning, general says (Military Good News from Iraq!)

Stars & Stripes, European Edition ^ | Sun, 9 Nov 03 | Ron Jensen

[xzins]

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By Ron Jensen, Stars and Stripes
European edition, Sunday, November 9, 2003

BAGHDAD, Iraq — The ongoing insurgency against the coalition is being diminished in Baghdad despite recent high-profile attacks that tend to leave the opposite impression, a general with the 1st Armored Division told reporters Friday afternoon.

“We think the insurgency is waning,” said Brig. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, the assistant division commander for support. “The ones who continue to fight are losing their support.”

The general spoke with reporters at Freedom Rest, the division’s rest and recreation hotel in Baghdad.

Also, a senior military official said the U.S. military believes 500 to 1,000 people are suspected to be behind the attacks in the Iraqi capital city.

Hertling said the impression left by the media in the minds of Americans is that the situation is worsening or, at least, not improving in the city.

That’s the purpose of attacks such as those two weeks ago at the International Committee for the Red Cross and, on the same day, four Iraqi police stations.

It is also why the coalition compound and the Al Rashid Hotel have been targeted in recent days, Hertling said. They are high-profile targets that generate lots of news coverage.

“The majority of our soldiers feel we are making progress every day and we are beyond the hardest part,” Hertling said.

The general did not want to discuss the rest of Iraq, but he did acknowledge that Fallujah, about 40 miles west of Baghdad, is a much more difficult situation for the 82nd Airborne Division. He said a large portion of the population there wants the Americans to fail in the effort to install a democratic form of government in Iraq.

People cheered the downing of a Chinook helicopter near there last Sunday that killed 16 soldiers. And as the general spoke, the Army was dealing with the crash of a Black Hawk helicopter near Tikrit, possibly the victim of a hostile action.

If hostile action was the cause, it will be the third helicopter shot down in two weeks. Another Black Hawk was downed by hostile fire on Oct. 25.

In recent days, soldiers have been killed in Tikrit, Mosul and other places. The death toll for U.S. troops in Iraq reached 34 in the past seven days, the highest weekly total since President Bush declared an end to major combat operations on May 1.

Some officials have said the sophistication of the attacks seems to be increasing.

But Hertling said the recent attacks in Baghdad are amateurish.

“This is not an efficient, effective enemy,” he said.

If it were, he said, the mortar rounds and rockets being fired in Baghdad would do more damage. And, he said, the car bombs directed against police stations two weeks ago would have been more effective. One bomb did not go off because the wire dislodged from the car battery.

He did acknowledge that the device used to remotely fire rockets at the Al Rashid Hotel two weeks ago was “a clever instrument.”

Hertling said the vast majority of Iraqis living in Baghdad are turning against the enemy. Following the blasts at the ICRC and the police stations, the military was swamped with tips from citizens about people who sought to harm the coalition.

“I absolutely think it backfired on them,” the general said of the attacks. “The Iraqi Baghdad population is tired of others disrupting their peace.”

The 1st Armored Division operates out of 27 bases throughout the city, he said. By May, they hope to have condensed their effort to five bases outside the city limits.

Before the general met with reporters, a senior military official explained how the effort is being measured. He said the city is divided into 88 zones and each is labeled green, amber or red, depending on the number of incidents. Normally, between eight and 12 are labeled red, he said, and a handful is amber, leaving 70 or more as green.

The official also quantified the size of the force that is actively operating in Baghdad. He said the U.S. military believes the enemy force in Baghdad is between 500 and 1,000, including “former regime power brokers” who want to return to power, foreign fighters and 200 or so who are “disenfranchised.”

“These are criminals ... who just want to make a buck,” he said of the final group. He said they operate in about 15 to 20 cells and sometimes join forces in a “marriage of convenience.”

“We’re going after these guys,” he said. “We’re targeting them with precise intelligence.”

He said about 90 percent of the intelligence gathered by the coalition pays off.

The official said the coalition is also keeping its eyes on a handful of mosques — about 20 out of 1,600 in the city — where an anti-coalition, anti-American message is being preached every Friday.

Hertling said the coalition is detaining the enemy and confiscating massive amounts of weapons.

[xzins]

Before the general met with reporters, a senior military official explained how the effort is being measured. He said the city is divided into 88 zones and each is labeled green, amber or red, depending on the number of incidents. Normally, between eight and 12 are labeled red, he said, and a handful is amber, leaving 70 or more as green

This is a classic measurement technique in the military. Red is bad, amber is caution, and green is good to go.

This says that we are "good to go" in approximately 80% of the sectors in Iraq.

That number will go down as they continue to search out and destroy cells of terrorists and their weapons caches.

[GoGophers]

“We think the insurgency is waning,” said Brig. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, the assistant division commander for support. “The ones who continue to fight are losing their support.”

That is probably why we suffered the most casualities during the first week of November since the end of major hostilities on May 1.

[Finalapproach29er]

Frightning denial.The place is infested. This will still be going on next spring,summer..................

[gcruse]

Yes, the escalating US deaths surely mean the enemy is getting weaker. We're not in Vietnam, but this sort of wishful thinking brings on a 30-year sense of deja vu.

[GoGophers]

Exactly!

[saquin]

If you read the article, you'd see Hertling is only talking of Baghdad. Most casualties have been occurring in and around Fallujah (and some in Tikrit and Mosul). Hertling acknowledged that those places are a different story, and that many of the people in Fallujah want the U.S. to fail in its efforts to foster a democratic govt. in Iraq.

Almost all of southern and northern Iraq are peaceful. Baghdad itself is relatively peaceful. 90% of attacks are happening in a very small part of the country, centered around Fallujah.

In my mind, what needs to be done is to pour reconstruction aid into the rest of Iraq, let them begin moving forward to a prosperous future, while at the same time cordoning off Fallujah and the other few troublesome towns. Put Fallujah under martial law, with curfews and checkpoints. It will help catch and stop the insurgents, while at the same time demonstrating to the residents of the town that the attackers are not working in their interest. The rest of Iraq is moving on without them into a prosperous, peaceful, democratic future. Fallujah can choose to follow them by stopping the attacks... or it can stagnate in poverty and misery. Their choice.

[libsaretraitors]

It must be an insanely depressing world your type lives in. Suck it up, every day we have more people learning what you are about. It used to make us angry, now it makes us laugh. Like our military in Iraq (God bless them all, even the whiners) we are winning and you are pathetic trolls.

[ccmay]

The dead-enders in the Sunni Triangle need to be made to understand that continued attacks will result in their being brought under the thumb of a native non-Sunni regime that will not be nearly so forgiving as the Americans. If they want a place at the table, they will have to cease their resistance. Otherwise they can live under the thumb of the Shias and Kurds whom they oppressed for so long, with no representation in the army or government.

[dr_who_2]

The thing I hate about cockroaches is that they always find a crack to crawl into before your foot lands on them. But when turn off the lights and leave the room, they're out again doing their thing.

[xzins]

Military perspective is necessary. In WWII, the German offensive known as the Battle of the Bulge was not a sign of German strength, simply because we lost soldiers. It was a sign of their being channeled back toward Germany, and their desperation to break out of that channeling.

The loss of 2 helicopters accounts for the bulk of the deaths this last week. However, They represent only 2 incidents.

The issue is the offensive plan and how it is progressing. It is measurable and it is improving.

[SierraWasp]

It seems we are experiencing an "insurgency" of defeatism right here at home!!!

Amusing and amazing!!!

[Polybius]

“The ones who continue to fight are losing their support.”

That's all well and good but the dead-enders have to be killed. Every last one of them.

The U.S. certainly has the military capability to accomplish this. However, whether the U.S. will win or lose this war is now a race between the time it will take to kill the dead-enders and the time it will take the Democrats and the Liberal news media to convince the American home front that the war is a failure and a quagmire.

If the Democrats and the Liberal media wins this race, America will lose this war.

[xzins]

This slide gives the disposition of US Forces.

THIS ARTICLE GIVES AN IDEA OF HOW WE'RE CONDUCTING OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS

Click here for complete article

– The 4th Infantry Division and Task Force Ironhorse launched “Operation Ivy Cyclone.” The operation is ongoing, focusing on aggressive offensive operations including patrols, ambushes, cordon and searches and raids. This operation is a concentrated, uncompromising effort to locate and detain or eliminate any person and/or undertaking that seeks to harm coalition forces or innocent Iraqis as they work together to bring stability and security to a free Iraq.

Over the past 24 hours with the start of “Operation Ivy Cyclone,” Task Force Ironhorse conducted 228 patrols, four raids and detained 16 individuals. Nineteen of the patrols were joint operations conducted with the Iraqi police, the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps and the Border Guard in order to continually improve the safety and standard of living for the Iraqi people.

[at bay]

In the month and a half you been on board, did anyone tell you this is a place where we support our troops? You might be lookin for www.traitorsrus.com

[Polybius]

“We think the insurgency is waning,” said Brig. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, the assistant division commander for support. “The ones who continue to fight are losing their support.”

That is probably why we suffered the most casualities during the first week of November since the end of major hostilities on May 1.

The USS Indianapolis was torpedoed and sunk by the Japanese on July 30, 1945. Of the 1,197 sailors and Marines on board, 883 men died.

Four weeks later, Japan surrendered.

If you truly belive that a military force on the brink of defeat is not capable of pulling off a spectacular attack before it's final death, then you are very foolish.

[Hannity4prez]

Great observation. Jeesh, I read the posts before yours and had to make sure I was reading the same article as them. Defeatest attitudes are becoming the norm.

Stay the path Mr. President. You and our heroic military are doing an oustanding,unprecedented job!

[xzins]

See #14

The media has not been permitting the news of our troops to get out.

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Great post (and comments), xzins. Thank you!

CENTCOM is back to putting out multiple security reports, too, thank goodness. More ammo for the good guys fighting the culture war.

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Following the blasts at the ICRC and the police stations, the military was swamped with tips from citizens about people who sought to harm the coalition.

“I absolutely think it backfired on them,” the general said of the attacks. “The Iraqi Baghdad population is tired of others disrupting their peace.”

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[MEG33]

Ever hear of the Battle of the Bulge?