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Great analysis Congressman. I have a couple of questions about the apportionment of Dem. primary delegates. Do you have a run down of the number of delegates for each primary state? Are caucus winning delegates obligated to vote for the winner? How many candidates do you think will reach the 15% mark in order to win delegates. Lastly, how soon until one of the candidates wrapped up the 2100 needed delegates?

Thanks for any help. I've been looking for info and haven't been real successful.

The base number of delegates that each state has in the Demo Natl Convention is proportional to the population of each state. However, to that are added the "superdelegates," the slots given to the major elected Democrats in each state, which varies state by state, of course. The DNC website probably has a breakdown on the number of delegates from each state.

The laws of each individual state determine whether delegates chosen in their primaries are required to vote for the candidate they were pledged to, in the first ballot (or I think in rare instances, beyond the first ballot). The FEC website might have that information.

On the math of nomination, I think it's March when enough primaries are completed so a candidate who sweeps the field to that point will have committed delegates for a guaranteed majority. However, it's not strictly a matter of numbers. If one candidate -- presumably Dean -- has won 80% of the delegates chosen to that point and holds 60% of the delegates necessary for the nomination, he'll pick up enough to win among those who are afraid to cut their own political throats by not supporting the "man who would be President."

When, not if, it reaches that point, the only change that could derail Dean would be Hillary jumping into the race in March. This is going to be a nasty election with a solid win for Bush if Dean is the nominee. It is going to be a very nasty election, more like a mud-wrestling match, if Hillary! jumps in. But Bush will still have a solid win. IMHO.

John / Billybob