As soon as any would-be candidate either files the necessary papers, or merely announces in public that "I am a candidate," that person is immediately subject to all the reporting and other requirements of the Federal Election Commission. Someone who merely has an "Exploratory Committee" to decide whether to run (below the level of presidential candidates), remains free of the clutches of the FEC.
There is a second, solid reason for my present position. I've researched congressional elections all the way back to 1790, and written one book plus a heavily statistical article for the American Academy of Actuaries on that subject. Bottom line: I know better than most exactly how hard it is to win a seat in Congress. So, I've decided not to run unless I DO IT RIGHT with a real chance to win.
I don't have to declare until 27 February, which is the filing deadline in North Carolina for Congress. And I WON'T file and actually run unless I have in hand a reasonable start on the 2,000+ volunteers and the $600,000+ in contributions that I know are essential for a legitimate run with a legitimate chance of victory.
I've read, and analyzed, the histories of the thousands of "lightning strike" candidates for Congress since 1976. Those are people who file to run, raise less than $100,000, and hope for lightning to strike. Doing that involves both deceiving your supporters and yourself. Exactly ONE such candidate has won in the last thirty years (due to a huge, last-minute scandal involving his opponent). I will not play that hopeless game.
Does that answer your questions?
John / Billybob
He has to run the table. And money can only buy so much love. He has to take Gephardt in Iowa, Kerry in New Hampshire, and Edwards/Gephardt/Clark/Lieberman in South Carolina.
To sweep those three would be very unlikely. Gephardt is leading in Iowa, but it's probably back to a tie with the recent HUGE union endorsements of Dean. I don't think Kerry can overcome Dean in New Hampshire. But South Carolina and the other primaries to be held on that day are up for grabs. Odds are very high that an anti-Dean will emerge; that would make life difficult for the good doctor.
Do I think Dean will win? Yes. He could sweep, he could just be stronger than the anti-Dean, or (most likely) he could be faced with multiple weak anti-Deans who can't unify to defeat him. But the sweep scenario is still unlikely.