Largest Solar Flare Ever Recorded (X30-X40) DOES have an Earth-Directed Component

Solar-Terrestrial Dispatch Mailing List ^

[John H K]

The X18+ solar flare has been associated with a high velocity FULL HALO coronal mass ejection. There IS an Earthward directed component. Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME.

True x-ray intensity is unknown, but is probably near the X30 x-ray level (possibly between X30 and X40). VERY impressive event! Definitely one for the record books.

We have no idea yet when this one might impact the Earth or how strong the impact might be. We're waiting for a bit more data to arrive before we start the number crunching.

[Luke Skyfreeper]

Gaaaah! Only one thing to do!

[listenhillary]

Aurora and lunar eclipse would be too cool.

Saturday 7:06pm CST totality. Forecast clear to partly cloudy.

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/lunar_eclipse_2_031031.html

[John H K]

Continuing on, the speed is simply the speed of all the junk headed out from the flare in the CME; 2,400 kilometers per second, which is basically halfway across the US each second.

They're still crunching the numbers to come up with a forecast arrival time but I'd guess it will end up being sometime tomorrow morning Eastern Time (not very well timed for Aurora in the US).

If there are any aurora it will be tomorrow night.

[Luke Skyfreeper]

Or even better...

[John H K]

The moon unfortunately is beginning to get very unfavorable for the aurora; getting towards a full moon. Really washes out a lot of the aurora.

I doubt there's really a chance of an amazing display for about another 18 days or so, when these sunspots (if they survive) are rotated back around the Sun and pointing towards Earth.

[Ogmios]

Hoo Ya, I like that, indeed the Sun has farted in our general direction.

Monte Python and all that rot.

So let's draw back a pint and toast the sun and all get really pissed...

Sorry, my trips to Great Britain made me do it, not my fault..

[JRandomFreeper]

Can anyone explain what exactly is happening?

The sun did a wet burp. It's a very large one, but like most newborns, the aim was off. The earth only has overspray to deal with. That overspray may give some really pretty lights in the sky in northern lattitudes.

Our goose is not cooked. But it could have been.

/john

[Imal]

Global warming!

[Ethyl]

This is probably caused by Universal Warming. Ya think?

[ovrtaxt]

Man, My skin sure is dry and itchy lately.

These are love blisters!

[Robert A Cook PE]

Yo the saber!

Is this the third of three flares (CME's) recently, or more detail of nbr 2 flare?

[Robert A Cook PE]

Several years ago (maybe from the massive 2001 event ?) the Auroa was visible down here in Atlanta.

[Thane_Banquo]

Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME.

I'm glad they cleared that up. I took one look at that thing and said, "There's no way in heck it's only going 2381 km/sec. It has to be going at least 19 km/sec faster than that."

[reagan_fanatic]

It must be big.

The tanning parlor not far from me just lowered their prices 30%.

[scab4faa]

Ummm Ya.. What he said.. Ya thats the ticket

[Marie Antoinette]

LOL! I should have known! We loved the aurora pics, BTW.

Looking forward to a nice early eclipse :-)

[mikrofon]

==>

[SierraWasp]

"The Sun farted in our general direction."

But who put a match to it?

[hispanarepublicana]

I'm sure this doesn't mean the end of the word

Good, because I have a nail appointment on Friday....

[John H K]

Eh, depends on what you mean. I think there have been something like 7-8 or more X class flares the last two weeks. I think the total number over X10 has been something like 4.