1. I already have an open bet for $50,000 with someone else. Before the war began, I bet him that there would be no "weapons of mass destruction" found in Iraq. I'm having a hard time collecting on this one -- every time I bring up the issue, he simply points out that "just because we haven't found them yet, it doesn't mean they won't be found." I'm starting to get the sense that he's not going to pay me, don't you?
2. The second problem is that neither you nor I will ever be able to know what the term "We will win!" means. I know this to be true because nobody in the U.S. government appears to know what the term "victory" means with regard to Iraq. No conditions were set at the start of the war (Reason #3 for my opposition to the war), and this administration has already had a silly "victory party" on a U.S. aircraft carrier even though the war is far from over.
So I don't think I can take this bet at this point. I don't have $50,000 at my disposal (due to my inability to collect on a previous bet), and even if I did have this money I wouldn't be willing to bet on something as ill-defined as a "victory" in this war. It's sort of like placing a pre-season bet on a Super Bowl winner. If you pick one team to go all the way, and someone else picks an "other" team without telling you who they selected, I'm guessing you aren't even putting a nickel down on that one.
Keep in mind, too, that I am not saying the U.S. is going to "lose" this war -- we simply aren't going to "win" it.
The United States does not lose wars -- we simply lose interest.