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Sun on Fire, Unleashes 3 More Major Flares
Space.com ^ | 11/3/03 | Robert Britt

Posted on 11/03/2003 1:34:54 PM PST by Tumbleweed_Connection

The Sun cut loose with three severe flares in less than 24 hours through Monday morning, bringing to nine the number of major eruptions in less than two weeks.

Scientists have never witnessed a string of activity like this.

Colorful aurora are expected to grace the skies at high latitudes and possibly into lower portions of the United States and Europe over the next two or three nights. Satellites and power grids could once again be put at risk.

Early Monday, Paal Brekke, deputy project manager of the SOHO spacecraft, was still digesting the significance of the three additional outbursts on top of two back-to-back monster flares Oct. 28 and 29.

Images

A major solar eruption early on Nov. 3, 2003, flung a cloud of expanding, hot gas into space. The myriad white spots are protons ahead of the storm slamming into the spacecraft's imager. Credit: NASA/ESA/SOHO

A space storm can only achieve full potential if its magnetic field is oriented south, opposite to that of Earth's protective magnetosphere which always points north.

"I think the last week will go into the history books as one of the most dramatic periods of solar activity we have seen in modern time," Brekke told SPACE.com.

None of the latest eruptions was aimed directly at Earth, but glancing blows are expected.

By the numbers

The flares this week began with an X8 event at 12:25 p.m. ET Sunday. On this scale, all X-storms are severe, and the number indicates the degree of severity. An X3 flare erupted at 8:30 p.m. Sunday.

Reports of the third flare are preliminary. It left the Sun at 4:55 a.m. Monday and is estimated to be an X4. The trio of outbursts comes within a week of the unprecedented, back-to-back severe flares rated X17 and X10.

The first four flares in this long, amazing series date back to Oct. 22 and were ranked less than X2.

All flares of this magnitude are capable of disrupting communications systems and power grids and harming satellites. Two Japanese satellite failures and a power outage in Sweden were blamed on the first six storms.

The new flares were accompanied by coronal mass ejections of charged particles that take anywhere from 18 hours to two or three days to reach Earth. These CMEs represent the brunt of the storm unleashed by a flare.

A storm's precise strength, however, cannot be known until about 30 minutes before it strikes and depends on the orientation of its magnetic field. If that field is southward -- opposite the direction of Earth's north-pointing magnetic field -- then the potential is greatest for accelerating the local particles that can then damage satellites and fuel aurora. More aurora

Scientists said the eruptions will generate increased auroras, the colorful Northern and Southern Lights excited by fast-moving particles, beginning midday Monday and into Tuesday and beyond. The lights shine because particles excite gas molecules in the atmosphere.

The chance of severe geomagnetic storming -- the root of auroras -- at middle latitudes is 30 percent Monday and 50 percent Tuesday, according to NOAA's Space Environment Center. The precise extent of the aurora at any moment can't be predicted, but it can be seen in real time with SPACE.com's Aurora Cam.

The fist flare Sunday was generated by Sunspot 486, which was the site of last week's major storms. The one late Sunday came from Sunspot 488, which is huge but has not been a major player until now. Monday's flare also leapt from Sunspot 488.

Both sunspots are about to rotate off the right side of the Sun's face, so their associated CMEs were not aimed squarely at Earth. However, these clouds of hot gas expand as they race into space at up to 5 million mph, so at least some effect at Earth is predicted.

Sunspots are dark, cooler regions of the solar surface. They are areas of pent-up magnetic activity, caps on upwelling matter and energy that can blow at any moment.

No scientist can recall nine X-class flares ever occurring in a 12-day period. More major flares are possible this week, forecasters said.



TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climatechange; signsandwonders; solarflare; solarflare2003; solarflares; sun; techindex
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To: alloysteel
Before they tell us details at 11:00, In Boston anyway, the tag line is most always, "women and children expected to be hit hardest".
61 posted on 11/03/2003 3:42:57 PM PST by Final Authority
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
So this is why I have a headache today! LOL!
62 posted on 11/03/2003 5:03:15 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: bray
And the Wicked Witch of NY held up a NY Slimes in the well of the Senate with the Headline, "What did Bush know and when did he know it?"

I know she held up a NY Post that said "BUSH KNEW", and then spoke those words you attributed to the Slimes. Was that a headline also? If you do a Google image search on "Bush knew" there is an image of that Post in their cashe, but it didn't come up at the site that it is supposed to be at(AMERICAN AUTOBAHN which was pretty interesting itself), so I can't link it.

No big deal, just nitpicking. ;-)

63 posted on 11/03/2003 6:21:06 PM PST by StriperSniper (All this, of course, is simply pious fudge. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: tubebender
How about a pic of one of those nut cases that hang on the side of a volcano wearing Reynolds Wrap...

Don't know if this guy is dressed for the occasion:

Now this guy is although he is nowhere near a volcano:

After that 11802656 bytes(!) Sun movie above, adding a few more can't hurt. ;-)

64 posted on 11/03/2003 6:34:36 PM PST by StriperSniper (All this, of course, is simply pious fudge. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: StriperSniper
Would you like to go into business with me selling those suits in photo #2 to FReepers...
65 posted on 11/03/2003 6:57:00 PM PST by tubebender (FReeRepublic...How bad have you got it...)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Maybe we should send the Sun some Pepcid.
66 posted on 11/03/2003 6:59:28 PM PST by mewzilla
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To: tubebender
to FReepers...

Nah, too many sharpies around here would be soon undercutting us and the profit margins will shrink too much. ;-)

67 posted on 11/03/2003 7:01:45 PM PST by StriperSniper (All this, of course, is simply pious fudge. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Incoming:

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 32
Issue Time: 2003 Nov 04 0609 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2003 Nov 04 0620 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Nov 04 0700 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2003 Nov 04 0600 UTC
68 posted on 11/03/2003 10:12:36 PM PST by Lawdoc (Incoming!)
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To: Lawdoc
IMPACT:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 38
Issue Time: 2003 Nov 04 0631 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2003 Nov 04 0627 UTC
Deviation: 72 nT
Station: Boulder

bz is NORTH so far.
69 posted on 11/03/2003 10:36:35 PM PST by Lawdoc (Incoming!)
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To: Tumbleweed_Connection
Looks like the Klingons got the drop on us with the Genesis torpedo.
70 posted on 11/03/2003 10:52:53 PM PST by Centurion2000 (Resolve to perform what you ought, perform without fail what you resolve.)
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