Al Qaeda again threatens New York, Washington and Los Angeles

A new message was posted in the last few hours by the Jeddah-based al-Qaeda-linked Al-Islah (Reform) society calling on Muslims to flee New York, Washington and Los Angeles in advance of major al Qaeda attacks in those cities. This is revealed by DEBKAfile.

The message accuses the United States of predetermining its end (doom) by its policies. ?The Jews rule the Pentagon by remote control and (are the cause) of Muslims being killed in every corner of the world. The United States should therefore expect more blows.?

The message is signed on behalf of the al Bayan (The Threat) movement by ?your warrior brother, Abul Hassan al Khadrami?.

Our Muslim expert identifies the name of the signatory as belonging to a Yemeni from Hadhrameuth, the Bin Ladens? place of origin where Osama enjoys substantial tribal support.

DEBKAfile?s counter-terror sources stress that warnings appearing on these forums are taken both very seriously and with caution by the intelligence services keeping track of the terrorist network?s electronic traffic.

Last November, Jeddah-based fundamentalist forums addressed a message to an Al Qaeda member, saying whoever understands ? understands; whoever knows, knows, but we are marching towards an operation that will take us to Paradise. Three days later, the Mombasa Paradise hotel was blown up killing 12 Kenyans and 3 Israelis and a failed shoulder-launched Strela anti-air missile missed an Israeli airliner at Mombasa airport.

While looking for this bombers name I found this:

Al-Qaeda planning February attack:
Al Qaeda Dirty Bomb has U.S. on Edge
by John Thompson

…"And the out come of the attack will be unbelievable and unexpected to you. Upon that any wrong move the administration takes in directing its policy will lead you to the cave of darkness [an obscure allusion to a place of fear, despair and damnation].

"And that's the name of the coming operation that will stop the (9)[whatever this means] and

their people and destroy them forever, although we apologize from now to the human race from the hardship that will affect them as an aftermath to the attack, but it is a less hardship for us than to see continents slaved, we apologize in advance to the American people and to the European community's but you have stud hand in hand with your governments and left the Jews take control of the rest of the world. …

"we will give you a prior few minutes notice before our blessed attack so that you will be

able to watch your destruction with your own satellite"

The threats issuing from Daleel Almojahid’s rotating al Qaeda websites are maddeningly non-specific, and their only entertainment value lies with his mastery of English. However, they certainly provide a sampling of al Qaeda thinking and warn that an attack is in-bound.

Other communications from (and within) al Qaeda imply that a major upcoming operation is named "Cave of Darkness" and strongly hint at four factors to the attack. One is that the attack will occur on or before 2nd February 2004, and is thus timed to coincide with the annual pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina. New York appears to be a very likely target, and the attack may very well involve the use of weapons of mass destruction. Finally, there may be many parallel attacks in many places — particularly in the Middle East — to coincide with the main attack.

The annual pilgrimages to Mecca and Medina entails mass movement throughout the Middle East as some two million pilgrims head to the two cities. This provides an excellent opportunity both to move cadres of trained insurgents around and to concentrate some of them inside Saudi Arabia. It should be noted that al Qaeda has no more love for the Saudi Royal family than many Americans do, and that the presence of Western military personnel in parts of Saudi Arabia is a mighty annoyance to Osama bin Laden.

Additionally, the height of the Pilgrimage is an emotionally charged time, and a major successful assault on the U.S. would capture the imaginations and support of more Muslims for al Qaeda than would otherwise be the case.

Although the US just dropped its alert level from Orange to Yellow, specific cautions for the aviation industry and American citizens in the Middle East (particularly in Saudi Arabia) remain high. Additionally, the surveillance in five key American cities for radioactive materials is going to continue.

As for the attack itself, the references to weapons of mass destruction imply the use of biological, chemical, nuclear or radiological agents. Biological weaponry is very notoriously tricky to use — nobody even noticed the attacks attempted by the Japanese group Aum Shinrikyo in 1995 and 1996, and al Qaeda is unlikely to have been able to produce enough material or to have learned to disseminate an agent. Al Qaeda does have chemical weapons — footage of their tests on dogs, and classroom notes on how to make basic poison gases were recovered from training bases in Afghanistan. However, a successful mass attack requires tons and tons of material and al Qaeda would find it difficult to smuggle enough material into the U.S. to wipe out a village, let alone a major city. Perhaps a false-flagged ship or jetliner might be able to deliver an effective attack.

The threat of a nuclear bomb is real enough, making a bomb is no great trick if one has the kryton switches and weapons grade fissionable materials. Moreover, there may be a couple of warheads missing from old Soviet tactical stockpiles and some other inventories are not subject to much scrutiny.

What is most likely is a radiological bomb. This would consist of a large bomb made of conventional explosives lying at the core of a collection of non-fissionable radioactive materials. When the bomb goes off, all the radioactive material around it would be scattered — but not too far. This would be sufficient to lay down a dangerous concentration of material in the core of a city. The numbers of immediate casualties from such an attack might not be all that high, but there would be tens of thousands of people to evacuate (if not many more) and much panic both in the targeted city and throughout the Western World.

We may be fortunate and the higher level of vigilance may deter an attack in the coming weeks (not that this would stop al Qaeda from trying the same attack later). In the meantime we should do what all prudent military planners do: Plan for the worst and pray for the best.

John Thompson is President of the Mackenzie Institute, which studies political instability and terrorism.

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