Another X class flare.

NOAA ^

[per loin]

Another high X flare. Looks to be an X8 or X9.

[rs79bm]

I have been monitoring this on the NASA channel. They have been showing images taken from the SOHO spacecraft, which are interesting. These flares are the largest ever recorded.

[MediaMole]

What impact are these flares having on the crew of the ISS?

All those x-rays can't be doing them much good.

[per loin]

Several oddities in watching the sun this month. Solar flux at 2800 Mhz has been extremely high, as has been the sunspot number. Also 10488 grew from nothing to a major sunspot at an amazing rate. It'll be interesting seeing this region of the sun in a few weeks when it comes back to earthside.

[billorites]

We've seen a lot of these since the Bush tax cuts.

Coincidence?

I think not.

[John H K]

This sunspot that has been producing these large flares has rotated so that it's almost out of view; it's extremely unlikely that any coronal mass ejection from this hits the earth, with more than a glancing blow, this time; it's not pointed at earth as it was last week.

[per loin]

This one came out of 10486 too?

[John H K]

Yep, 486...

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20031102_1704.html

[ex-Texan]

Art Bell was discussing solar flares last night. Scientists are rumored to be "concerned" about solar flare activity and excessive cosmic dust storms entering our solar system. We will just have to wait and see.

[John H K]

Scientists are rumored to be "concerned" about solar flare activity and excessive cosmic dust storms entering our solar system. We will just have to wait and see.

An Art Bell fabrication, I'm sure.

There's no practical concern over anything but satellites. It seems clear power companies have gotten a handle on the threat of solar activity based on nothing happening regarding the grid last week.

[snopercod]

What impact are these flares having on the crew of the ISS?

I've been asking the very same thing since the first CME. Nobody's talking.

I'm sure some NASA management type is saying, "There's nothing we can do about it anyway".

[per loin]

Far side imaging is gonna be interesting for a couple of weeks.

[isthisnickcool]

A fellow called in to Art Bell last night and said this was the precurser to the Sun going supernova.

[snopercod]

I did find this, though:

But perhaps the greatest health danger an astronaut faces comes from the Sun. Astronauts working outside a spacecraft—on the Moon, for example—during a major solar particle event could receive a dose of 6 sieverts (Sv) of radiation to the skin, equal to 600 rem, short for "roentgen equivalent men." Rem are defined as the dosage of any ionizing radiation that will cause the same amount of biological injury to human tissue as one roentgen of x-ray or gamma-ray dosage. That same solar event would cause a bone marrow dose of close to 0.9 Sv (90 rem), something like 500 to 1,000 times higher than the dose one receives from a chest x-ray.

While the experts point out that such a high dose isn’t life-threatening, they mention a variety of long- and short-term consequences. A skin exposure of 6 Sv will, in about 50% of cases, cause visible reddening, and an increased risk of skin cancer in later years because of damage to the skin. It's also likely that the astronaut would temporarily lose all of his or her hair. Male astronauts would likely experience temporary sterility (for 10-20 months). And it's generally accepted that there is an increased risk of cancer as a result of a whole-body radiation exposure of this intensity.

600 REM?!? The maximum allowable dose for a nuclear plant worker is 5 REM per year, with a 100 REM exception for life saving.

My Rad Protection Manual says:

Acute Dose: 200-600

Above 300 REMS, all exposed infividuals exhibit vomiting withing 2 hours. Severe leukopenia and loss of red blood cells occurs accompanied by hemorrhaging and infection. Loss of hair after 2 weeks occurs for doses over 300 REMS. At 250 rems, temporary sterility may last 1 to 2 years and at hight end of range, permanent sterility may occur. At 200 REMS no fatalities shouold occur. At 450 REMS, 50% fatality and at 600 REMS 80% fatality is expected withing 3 to 6 weeks. Principle cause of death is hemorrhaging and infection. Recovery time for survivors usually 1 to 12 months depending on dose. Therayp consists primarily of blood transfusions and antibiotics.

Anybody know how to convert Watts/M² to Roentgen?

[per loin]

Was that the guy who was giving the president instructions on how to keep it from going BOOM?

[freedumb2003]

" the Sun going supernova. "

Nova

Nova

[Prof Engineer]

precurser to the Sun going supernova.

Good thing I have an escape pod. I can leave Earth at any time.

[isthisnickcool]

Was that the guy who was giving the president instructions on how to keep it from going BOOM?

Yea! LOL! I think even Bell thought he was a nutcase.

[Drango]

I've got my tin foil hat on so I'm not worried...

[John H K]

From the Solar-Terrestrial Dispatch Mailing List, it seems there will be some effect but most of it, as one would expect, is not directed towards Earth:

Just a VERY quick note to the group. I thought you all may be interested.

We've analyzed the last few LASCO C2 and C3 frames and can confirm that this
event is AT LEAST a partial halo CME - possibly a full-halo. However, most
of the mass is (as expected) directed heavily west of the Earth.
Nevertheless, it looks like there IS an Earthward-directed component. VERY
preliminary estimated plane of sky velocity (using only two frames) is near
2,000 km/sec to the west. It's another strong proton flare. Polar cap
absorption event is in-progress again.

More later.