U.S. May Alter Social Security Projection; Immigration, Life Expectancies Should Change Projections

Associated Press ^ | 10-23-03

[Brian S]

Immigration and Life Expectancies Should Change Social Security Projections, Panel Says

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON Oct. 23 — The government should change how it projects Social Security's future finances by assuming significant increases in immigration, longer life expectancies and lower inflation, an advisory panel said Thursday.

If adopted, the system's projected 75-year deficit would rise by $200 billion to $3.7 trillion, according to a report by a panel of economists, actuaries and demographers appointed to review methods now used to project Social Security's future financial status.

Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, in which workers' payroll taxes fund benefits for current retirees. The system faces financial problems as the large baby boom generation starts retiring in five years, while there are fewer workers to pay Social Security taxes.

The most urgent change would be to assume an increase in immigration rather than a decline, the report said.

"Given the steady increase in immigration experienced since World War II, the panel believes that the current assumption of a decline in the annual number of immigrants is unrealistic," it said.

Immigration has increased by an average of about 4 percent a year since 1950. Yet Social Security trustees assume a drop this year from 1.2 million to an annual total of 900,000 in 2023 and after, the report said.

"In light of the sustained, rapid increase of net migration over more than five decades, the panel finds this assumption to be highly implausible," the report said. "Since immigration results in a larger and younger population, the effect of a mistaken migration assumption on projected trust fund balances should be a major cause of concern."

The panel also recommended that assumptions for mortality rates be changed to result in a projected life expectancy of 84.4 years instead of the current 82.9 years for someone born in 2070.

On labor force participation, Social Security trustees should eliminate an assumption recently added that rates will rise because of increases in life expectancy. The report said sufficient evidence does not yet exist that points to a sustained trend of Americans working longer and postponing retirement.

Other recommendations include an increase in the assumed rate of real wage growth and a decrease in the assumed rate of inflation.

The Social Security Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods was appointed by the Social Security Advisory Board, an independent, bipartisan board created in 1994 to advise the president, Congress and the Social Security commissioner.

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Social Security Advisory Board:

[Joe Hadenuf]

Social Security has problems yet we send 15 *billion* to Africa?

[snopercod]

I'm sure that the millions of "discouraged" people who have been out of work for more than a year and are not paying into the system has nothing to do with the re-evaluation </sarcasm>

[Joe Hadenuf]

Good point....

[GiovannaNicoletta]

The 50+ million American citizens that have been slaughtered since 1973 sure would come in handy about now.

[Brian S]

Yes but once they are back on the job, at 30-50% of their previous earnings, we can make it up...right?

/chuckle

[aristeides]

Why should a larger and younger population result in a larger deficit? I would have thought it would help to pay the costs.

[Ciexyz]

Many Americans are not being permitted to work longer and delay retirement. They're getting pushed out of the workplace, whether they want to leave or not. I heard that "Alcoa" in the Pittsburgh area is "going after" anyone fifty or older, the way it was told to me.

[Ciexyz]

The 50+ American citizens who have been slaughtered since 1973....

A most tragic figure. "Pray to defeat abortion" bump.

[WhiteGuy]

don't worry Joe.................

soon, at the rate we're going, the whole world will be just like Africa,

[FITZ]

How much is being spent on SSI ---- which is a great program for immigrants who come here too disabled in some way or another to work at all? Lots of elderly immigrants come here only for the SSI ----- end that and transfer that money over to SS.

[joesnuffy]

Hey add a few hundred million illegal aliens under amnesty...
and watch how many pay some doc to cook the books on their
disability claims...

Immigrants in Central Wi have been doing it for years now...pretty dominating social services in the area..not to mention increasing the crime rate..insurance rate..public services and as a result of the burden on all public resources...taxes..

These aliens are gonna sink us...

[FITZ]

The new population coming in tends to have a low income, they pay little if any into Social Security, they use a lot in health care, have low health insurance rates. They have a very high teenage-unwed birth rate ---- they're costing us overall much more than they are putting in. One welfare mother with 3-4 kids in school is taking as much as $40,000 per year just in education costs alone ---- then there is the cost of free health care, food stamps and the rest.

[FITZ]

They caught one of the 80's amnestied here shoplifting with 4 separate Identifications on her that she was using ---- they investigated --- because they wondered why she had 4 different names and addresses and which one she really was --- she was using all 4 to collect welfare in 3 different state. I'm not sure but I think all 4 of her identities were amnestied at close to the same time. It was too easy --- the amnestied never had to prove who they were ---- she was smart and turned into 4 welfare collecting individuals.

[blackdog]

Funny no mention of 40,000,000 workers who would be paying into the system but will not be because they were aborted.

If those 40,000,000 dead children since 1974 were in the pipeline to pay as they go, we wouldn't be asking where Social Security went wrong in 2015.

Just odd that an article that wants to discuss demographics glossed over that fact.

[Conservative til I die]

Gee, I thought President Bush would have pushed through his SS partial-privatization plan by now. It's only 2004.

[blackdog]

How cool that many of us commented exactly the same thing, re:abortion and Social Security insolvency.

Maybe someone will have to officially comment on the seven ton elephant standing in the middle of the meeting room which everyone in attendance pretends isn't there?

[Age of Reason]

Social Security has problems yet we send 15 *billion* to Africa?

No problem.

We'll just import 15 billion young immigrants and lose our quality of life, freedom, and cultural identity rather than fix what's broken.

And when those immigrants get old, we'll just import more.

[Joe Hadenuf]

You mean this isn't their plan already? LOL....

[Joe Hadenuf]

This country is knee deep in fraud that is being created by this epic flood of illegals....