3 Democrats Take Novel Approach in Early Races

The Washington Post ^ | 10/23/03 | Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei

[DeFault User]

3 Democrats Take Novel Approach in Early Races

By Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei Washington Post Staff Writers Thursday, October 23, 2003; Page A01

Retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) and Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) have staked their presidential candidacies on an unusual second-chance strategy, betting their futures against the record of history and the dynamics that have governed nomination contests for more than two decades.

The decision by the three Democrats to say they will look for their first victories on Feb. 3 -- two weeks after the Iowa caucuses and a week after the New Hampshire primary -- tests whether anyone can win the nomination without competing to win in Iowa and New Hampshire and also highlights the parallel battles underway in the Democratic race.

--snip--

Seven states will hold contests Feb. 3: Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Never before have so many states scheduled primaries or caucuses so soon after New Hampshire, and Edwards, Clark and Lieberman see that date as an opportunity to jump into the thick of the battle.

Edwards is eyeing South Carolina as his must-win state and also plans to compete for Oklahoma. Lieberman is looking at Arizona, Oklahoma and Delaware. Clark is conducting polls and focus groups to determine which states look best for him, but Oklahoma, South Carolina and Arizona are potential targets.

--snip--

Eli Segal, chairman and chief operating officer of the Clark campaign, says history is of limited use this year because there is no dominant candidate and the calendar is compressed. "The calendar has changed completely," he said. "I'm not saying history is bunk, but the lessons of the past are of limited utility."

Clark, Edwards and Lieberman all have made a similar calculation: A Gephardt loss in Iowa or a Kerry loss in New Hampshire would end those candidacies, as each has a regional advantage and is favored to win those states at the beginning of this year. They also calculate that, because of Dean's rapid rise over the summer, a Dean defeat in New Hampshire could cripple his candidacy, although his hefty campaign war chest gives him the capacity to keep going longer.

Their bet is that Dean will win one or both of those states and that many Democrats elsewhere, particularly moderates and conservatives, will be looking for an alternative to him, or if Gephardt wins Iowa, to both of them.

"They all want to be the stop-Dean guy after Dean is unstoppable, which is not a strategy I'd lend them any money to operate," Republican strategist Mike Murphy said.

---snip---

By not competing to win in Iowa or New Hampshire, Carrick said, "You're ceding control of your own destiny to other campaigns and to factors outside your control."

Clark and Lieberman decided last weekend not to compete actively in the organization-intensive Iowa caucuses, acknowledging they had more to lose than gain by staying in. Advisers to both campaigns say the money saved in Iowa will allow them to concentrate more time and resources in New Hampshire and then break out with victories on Feb. 3. But for two candidates who argue they are the most electable of the Democrats, avoiding Iowa undermines the case for electability.

The decision to skip Iowa raises the stakes for both in New Hampshire. Clark and Lieberman have embraced a version of the 2000 strategy of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). He skipped Iowa, parked himself in New Hampshire and beat George W. Bush there by 18 percentage points. But at this point in 1999, McCain was at 25 percent to 30 percent in the New Hampshire polls and was competing to win or come in a close second there. Clark and Lieberman say they hope to finish third.

Both campaigns plan to spend more time in New Hampshire. The retired general landed there Tuesday and intends to stay through Saturday. An aide said Clark will campaign in the state -- where polls show him running third -- virtually every week, creating a northern base from which he can easily jet to nearby Boston and New York to raise money.

The New Hampshire contest is splitting into what amounts to two primaries: one between New Englanders Dean and Kerry for first place, and another between Clark and the others for a coveted third-place finish. Dean consistently leads the pack in public and private polls, and draws the largest and most enthusiastic audiences. "As of right now, those two are competing with each other, and then there's a group of us competing for third," Edwards said.

--snip--

[DeFault User]

If you can't win, at least dazzle them with footwork.

[Spruce]

Talk about pissin' money down the drain...

[DeFault User]

"They all want to be the stop-Dean guy after Dean is unstoppable, which is not a strategy I'd lend them any money to operate," Republican strategist Mike Murphy said.