A new threat pops up - Egypt

Haaretz ^ | Wednesday, October 22, 2003 Tishrei 26, 5764 | Reuven Pedatzur

[yonif]

After the Iraqi threat evaporated, others, old and new, were immediately pulled out of the hat. After all, it is unthinkable that the threats to poor little Israel should be reduced; this might lead to a doomsday scenario - a drastic cut in the defense budget. So, the good old Syrian specter and the Iranian missiles were resuscitated, and a new threat was also tossed in - Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have suddenly become a serious threat now that they have deployed fighter jets at Tabuk airport, not far from Eilat.

The fact that the Syrian military is so weak that even Syrian officers don't believe it is capable of conducting a war against the Israel Defense Forces does not dissuade anyone from brandishing it as an existential threat that, of course, requires massive budgets. The Iranians may not have nuclear warheads and probably will not have any in the near future, but this is no reason to stop fearing them. The Saudis have had F-15s for many years, and the fact that a few of them have landed a little closer to Israel does not change the threat from this country one iota.

But apparently the defense establishment is not convinced that promulgating these threats is enough to stop further cuts in the defense budget, so they are exhuming the so-called Egyptian threat. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz cautioned last week against Egypt's arms stockpiling over the past few months. The defense establishment suddenly realized that Egypt was buying high-end weapons from the U.S. The excuse for the warning by Mofaz is Washington's intention to sell Egypt satellite-guided JDAM bombs. These are indeed precise weapons, but it is ridiculous to assert that they upgrade the Egyptian military and change the strategic balance against Israel. The defense establishment went further than that, and leaked that "in the past two years regular IDF corps have been training on battle scenarios in the Sinai peninsula, simulating a defensive battle with Egyptian forces. Israeli intelligence has collected information indicating an increase in Egypt's order of battle and substantial weapons stockpiling. Egypt has also built fortifications throughout the Sinai in preparation for the future war."

The defense minister himself wonders about Egypt's stockpiling. "What for? After all, we have peace with Egypt and to the best of my knowledge there is no country that is physically threatening Egypt." Mofaz is not only puzzled, he is also concerned. "Within a few years Egypt's leadership might be replaced and the new regime might have a different attitude toward Israel."

Apparently, the tension and futile fighting in the territories are not enough for him, so he tries to ratchet up tensions on another front. War is not an option, Egypt's president repeatedly states, practically begging Israel to be careful in the territories so that it does not cause an escalation that would lead to regional war. But why should we listen to Mubarak or try to understand his position and constraints, when it so much easier to fall back into old, familiar patterns; we can attack him, demonize him and mainly insult him with a broad hint about the terrible, dark regime that will soon be taking his place.

Mofaz is not alone. The chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yuval Steinitz, who long ago "exposed Egypt's true face," quickly stated that "Israel is now facing two potentially existential threats ... the Iranian nuclear threat and Egypt's arms race ... Egypt is stockpiling ... (and) simulating a war with Israel. We must not repeat the same mistake we made 30 years ago. I am concerned about a war with Egypt, even under the current regime."

Egypt's military is definitely building up its power. It is transforming from a fighting force based on Soviet arms systems into a modern army with top-of-the-line Western technology. The Egyptian air force has 481 fighter jets, including advanced F-16s. The army has 3,500 tanks, including American Abrams tanks. Egypt's military also has ballistic missiles, ship-launched Harpoon 2 missiles and almost 500,000 soldiers in the regular army. But a quick look at Egypt's economic situation, its dependence on the U.S. and its long-term objectives leaves no doubt that a war with Israel is the last thing Egypt wants.

But Israel's current cabinet, which is well-represented by Mofaz, does not let the facts confuse it. Sharon and Mofaz (the other ministers have no say anyway) see the world in general and the Middle East in particular through the sights of a gun. They do not trust the Arabs, wherever they come from - Nablus or Cairo; in their mind, we have no choice but to solve all our problems in the region with military force, just as we have been doing with the Palestinian problem. They are not concerned that the situation might escalate and lead to war; they may even be hoping that this happens. It therefore makes perfect sense for them to dispatch jets to drop bombs outside Damascus, magnify the Iranian threat, demonize Saudi Arabia and heat up tensions with Egypt. If a war breaks out on one of these fronts, we will finally be on solid ground - after all, using force is one thing we know how to do.

[yonif]

The chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Yuval Steinitz, who long ago "exposed Egypt's true face," quickly stated that "Israel is now facing two potentially existential threats ... the Iranian nuclear threat and Egypt's arms race ... Egypt is stockpiling ... (and) simulating a war with Israel. We must not repeat the same mistake we made 30 years ago. I am concerned about a war with Egypt, even under the current regime."

[RightWhale]

There will be war if Egypt goes. Syria alone will not cause war.

[Mears]

Maybe someone on this thread with more knowledge than me can explain to me why we give Egypt $1.3 billion dollars a year?

[yonif]

Because we refuse to call the enemy what it is.

[SJackson]

If you'd like to be on or off this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

Old threat, reemerging.

Syrian military chief says Syria capable of deterring Israel

[SJackson]

Since we were increasing aid to Israel in recognition of their strategic and economic loss in returning the Sinai, the current administration (Carter) felt it only fair to provide aid to Egypt as well. The original concept was one of economic aid, to prevent the radicalization of Egyptian society (that's why only 4 of the 9/11 terrorists were Egyptian, it could have been worse). Actually not a bad idea, had it worked. Essentially, that has transformed over time to supplying Egypt with arms the equal of Israel, in the name of fairness, I suppose.

[Nachum]

Jews have been in Egypt since Biblical times, and Alexandria had once been, at least partially, a Jewish city. In 1945, the pro-Nazi "Young Egypt" group led anti- Jewish rioting in which many Jews were killed. In 1947, a new law for companies made it practically impossible for Jewish businesses to operate. Egypt had 75,000 Jews in 1948, when bombings, burnings and looting destroyed almost $50 million worth of Jewish property. After the overthrow of King Farouk by Nasser and his "Free Officers," life for Jews became intolerable in that country. After the Suez War, 3,000 Jews were arrested and imprisoned without trial. Thousands of others were presented with deportation orders forcing them to quit the country within days and leave all their property behind. By 1967, Nasser had managed to force all but 3,000 Jews out of Egypt. There were fewer than 500 Jews remaining in the land ruled by the "moderate" el-Sadat in 1976; the rest were driven out to find new homes, mostly in Israel. Egypt 1948: 75,000 Jews, Egypt 1976: 500 Jews. ( Amnesty International reported in 1976 that there were only 350 Jews in Egypt.)

R. Meir Kahane, OBM

[Mears]

Thanks for your most informative reply. I wonder though,if we are trying to buy friendship,and if we are,will it work?

[Centurion2000]

Essentially, that has transformed over time to supplying Egypt with arms the equal of Israel, in the name of fairness, I suppose.

"It ain't the crate, it's the pilot"

[tet68]

Sounds like Israel has it's own missguided liberals.
We knew it did but one would think living there would let them see the folly of their way of thinking.

[yonif]

The US government should stop supplying Egypt with weapons as well.

[tet68]

I have been reading lately about the "Muslim Brotherhood" and it's start in Egypt, we certainly don't need to put serious arms where they can be taken over by these fanatics.

Carter was an idiot.

[Taiwan Bocks]

Something's up with the islamonazis, that's for sure.

Saudis and Pakistanis, Iranians and Syrians, all exerting and posturing in new threatening ways.

God help Israel.

May Sharon remember how they have always won wars, Strike first!

[fatidic]

Muslim Brotherhood members are just regular Muslims who take their religion to heart. Bush's comments on Islam don't indicate that he understands America's enemy, violation of rule number one in war.

[tet68]

Muslim Brotherhood members are just regular Muslims who take their religion to heart.

Oh really? Well then, perhaps the problem isn't them it's their religion......

I really see no need to make distinctions when they (and it) are trying to kill or enslave me.

[fatidic]

Islam is the root of terrorism beginning with its prophet Mohammed. The Muslim Brotherhood follows Mohammed's example.