Third-Party Peril. President Bush could have some serious 2004 worries.

NRO ^ | October 20, 2003, 8:31 a.m. | John Derbyshire

[expatpat]

You're exactly right. Any problems with illegal immigration will have to get a lot worse before anyone can use it to win a significant number of votes.

Also, for every right-wing vote lost by Bush, there could be two independent votes won because he appears more centrist by contrast with the anti-immigrant candidate.

[Mr. Bird]

There is no evidence at all that Perot "cost" Bush the election. Every exit poll I've seen said that he took votes in an equal % from both Bush and Clinton. Nader's votes came 100% from Gore voters

I've never seen any exit polling data that broke it down by state. That's really the only thing that matters, as '00 showed us. It matters not a whit what the national percentage was.

[.cnI redruM]

Especially in Michigan. Cross-over voters drove McCain's primary victory.

[Poohbah]

"Close the borders," "expel illegal immigrants," and "punish corporations that hire illegal immigrants" are policies that have abstract popularity. When the real costs are itemized, a lot of that popularity evaporates.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Yes, he pushed it up a bit recently. It will ebb and flow nevertheless, with nearly 13 months to go---just take a drive to the supermarket and look at your fellow Americans and learn how disloyal, fickle, short-termed, impatient, tempermental and short-memoried/disconnected they are on important issues.

This is what gave us Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Jesse Ventura and others.

If the three major areas (above) are not turned around that I mentioned, though, IMHO he risks losing it and history is our guide. The only way he could loose is the sap Democrats nominated somebody like Sharpton and Braun.

[AmericanInTokyo]

correction (of course)...

'the only way he could guarantee victory'

[hchutch]

Very true.

[daviddennis]

I have to say that I'm not too concerned about this one.

The truly ferocious opposition to illegal immigration, the people who would vote on this as their single issue, seem concentrated on a very small number of states. In fact, I think Californians are the only people this issue really touches in a big way.

Even among Californians, my impression is that the majority of people hopping mad about it are those who live close enough to the border to be swamped by the illegals going North, where they disperse rapidly into places where they can be employed.

This seems to me like a very angry minority, but a very small minority. If it was a true majority, I think we would see someone run for governor on that platform. Tom McClintock threw a few bones in that direction, but I seem to remember that he never wanted to be considered the anti-illegal governor.

Dog Gone, how severe is the backlash against illegal immigration over in Texas? Do I not hear much about it because I pay attention mainly to California threads, or does Texas adopt better to it? Is that perhaps thanks to Texas' stingier government?

My position has always been that if we fix our own problems, we pretty much automatically fix the illegal problem. Others disagree, often nastily.

California is a must-capture state for the Democrats. If this imaginary candidate caught California instead, Bush would almost certainly win re-election. If there's more anger on this in Texas than I thought, he might take Texas, but since Bush is the native son I'd count that a really, really, really long shot.

But perhaps the rather eclectic set of people I've pinged will comment.

D

[LS]

I think you are right, I have never seen state-wide data either, only a national breakdown that had it about 50%/50%, Bush/Clinton.

[grania]

As to the "illegal immigration" issue--to MOST people, it is a minor irritation, not a source of major political "juice".

Do you really feel that the invasion is a minor issue? The only question is if a Dem candidate or a third party can capitialize on the anger and sense of abandonment that a lot of 2000 GWB voters feel.

On the other issue, the Green Party. One has to assume that the Dems will do everything in their power to get the Green votes this time. Maybe a VP candidate the Greens like would do it.

Fact is, add to this, the PBA ban just sits there, waiting for both sides to be resolved, while GWB puts everything ahead of it. His brother just sits there in Florida, when either he or GWB could give Terri a stay of execution. A lot of jobs aren't coming back. There are really quite a few issues where GWB has abandoned his socially conservative, value-oriented, working-class US citizen base.

[Centurion2000]

I think that the third parties of the right may have been somewhat of a casualty of 9/11.

Possibly ... but not as much as you think. A lot of people are sick of this border mess.

[Rabid Dog]

One of the initial candidates considering a run for Governor was going to run entirely on a anti-illegal immigration platform. The candidate's name is Elton Gallegly and he is my U.S. Representative. Has been in office for at least five or six terms. He abandoned his run when Arnold stepped in because he knew he would have to come up with many millions of dollars to level the playing field and it just wasn't practical for him.

Now, none of the above means I think he would have had a snowball's chance - but he is a smart man and I'm sure ran some numbers - so maybe there is enough of a demand.

Just F.Y.I.

[deport]

There is data out there by states but in most cases you have to be registered to retrive it.... the following gives a little breakdown by some states and who won with percentages


http://www.fairvote.org/plurality/perot.htm

[deport]

http://www.icpsr.umich.edu:8080/ICPSR-STUDY/06102.xml

Statewide data on 1992 by VNS but needs registration

[Dog Gone]

Illegal immigration is not nearly the issue in Texas that it is in California. Maybe it's because we've always had a significant hispanic population or that the illegals tend to head toward traditionally hispanic cities like El Paso and San Antonio.

Illegals are widely employed in the construction business, landscaping, and agriculture, as well as in most service industries. It's generally acknowledged and accepted.

There's no way that Bush loses Texas. The only reason any candidate would campaign here would be for fundraising. It's a lock.

[LS]

Thanks. This pretty much confirms that Perot did not "cost" Bush the election, even when broken down at the state level. The authors conclude that even if you gave Bush all the "close" states where Perot would have made a difference, der Schlickmeister still wins.

[justshutupandtakeit]

There will be no "patriot" attempting to split the GOP vote and ensure a RAT victory. All true patriots will see thru this transparent RAT scheme.

[Joe Hadenuf]

As to the "illegal immigration" issue--to MOST people, it is a minor irritation, not a source of major political "juice".

And Rush Limbaugh is not a drug abuser.....

[Joe Hadenuf]

Illegal immigration is not nearly the issue in Texas that it is in California.

That because the illegal aliens in Texas are better educated and are more honorable.

Thanks for the humor Dog...

[onyx]

I thought by now I would see "TANCREDO" in huge bold font.