[Torie]

I am shocked, shocked I tell you, that Delay would tell the press that the Texas plan will withstand the legal gaunlet. I put the odds at no better than 50% that it will, and odds even that are only because the 5th circuit is rather conservative, and SCOTUS will not take the case, because it will rule on the Pennsylvania case, and that ruling will either bounce the highly partisan Texas plan (just like the Pennsylvania lines were highly partisan), or it will not. What SCOTUS will do regarding partisan gerrymanders is really up in the air. What is justice Kennedy thinking these days about how pursuing individual liberty in all its spatial dimensions means in this context? Nobody ever knows that Sandra Day is thinking, at such times as she does think. Time will tell.

[Torie]

I should say that nobody knows what Sandra is thinking, but suggesting that nobody knows that she is thinking is not entirely off the mark come to think of it.

[Dog Gone]

Every Democrat with a dog in the fight is saying that this map will fail. Unless you've been shocked by their remarks, too, then you should relax and watch the developments over the next few months without getting excited over cheerleading remarks from either party.

The Pennsylvania case does determine the outcome of the Texas redistricting in the courts, and the only other suspense is whether the Supreme Court will hasten its decision in that case to accomodate the Texas situation.

[AntiGuv]

An amicus regarding the Texas redistricting had been filed back in August as part of the Vieth v Jubelirer proceedings, and so the Supreme Court ruling will almost certainly encompass the TX circumstances to whatever extent applicable. Otherwise, I give this map no greater than a 20% chance of withstanding judicial review for several different reasons: retrogression, racial gerrymander (packing & cracking), possibly intercensal reapportionment, and possibly partisan (viewpoint-based?) discrimination.

I should note, however, that I've only had the opportunity for a cursory analysis of these enacted maps. Someone very dear to me was diagnosed with a terminal illness early last week and given less than 3 weeks to live. Most of my time has been & will be consumed by that during this brief interim. In any event, the basic point should be that any court even remotely inclined to find in favor of the Democrats should have no problem whatever overturning these maps on multiple bases; I've seen maps overturned for 'far less' so to speak.

PS. If the maps stand, I think the 2004 TX delegation will include 23 Republicans rather than the widely cited 22. I suspect Ralph Hall will not stand for reelection and will have a tough time regardless. I have to look at that district more closely before I draw more than a tentative conclusion. Has anyone considered the Hall district who expects otherwise?