[AntiGuv]

An amicus regarding the Texas redistricting had been filed back in August as part of the Vieth v Jubelirer proceedings, and so the Supreme Court ruling will almost certainly encompass the TX circumstances to whatever extent applicable. Otherwise, I give this map no greater than a 20% chance of withstanding judicial review for several different reasons: retrogression, racial gerrymander (packing & cracking), possibly intercensal reapportionment, and possibly partisan (viewpoint-based?) discrimination.

I should note, however, that I've only had the opportunity for a cursory analysis of these enacted maps. Someone very dear to me was diagnosed with a terminal illness early last week and given less than 3 weeks to live. Most of my time has been & will be consumed by that during this brief interim. In any event, the basic point should be that any court even remotely inclined to find in favor of the Democrats should have no problem whatever overturning these maps on multiple bases; I've seen maps overturned for 'far less' so to speak.

PS. If the maps stand, I think the 2004 TX delegation will include 23 Republicans rather than the widely cited 22. I suspect Ralph Hall will not stand for reelection and will have a tough time regardless. I have to look at that district more closely before I draw more than a tentative conclusion. Has anyone considered the Hall district who expects otherwise?

[onyx]

What do ya-all think?

[goldstategop]

The courts have never ruled incumbent protection or partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional. If the SCOTUS, does, that will be a watershed in American history.

[Dog Gone]

You are far more pessimistic about the map's chances of withstanding judicial scrutiny than I am. It's my opinion that it's legal under current interpretations.

The wild card is Jubelirer, though, and the Supreme Court is going to clarify the rules and possibly set new ones.

Unfortunately, Jubelirer is not a favorable fact situation, and it's easy to have the suspicion that the Supreme Court took the case to overturn the ruling that the Pennsylvania map is legal. That would certainly increase the chances that the Texas map will have to be redrawn.