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Posted on 10/15/2003 9:11:30 AM PDT by snopercod
Maybe it was the time that Gov. Gray Davis mocked Arnold Schwarzenegger's thick accent that did him in.
A candidate for governor should at least know how to pronounce "California," Davis said on Sept. 6.
To most non-Hispanics, it was a lame joke. To many California Hispanics, it was insulting.
"It showed Davis didn't know what state he was governor of," said Raul Damas, director of Latino Opinions, a research group.
Whatever the reason, Hispanic voters were a key factor in Davis' historic defeat in the Oct. 7 recall election. And they helped turn Republican Schwarzenegger's victory over Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Hispanic Democrat, into a landslide.
That surprised many, since California Hispanics leaned heavily Democratic. Davis got 72% of their vote in 2002.
Latinos Split On Recall
But just 54% voted to keep Davis in office, while 46% voted to oust him, according to an exit poll by Edison Media Research.
Vote on replacement ballot All Men Women White Black Hispanic
Schwarzenneger Rep. 46% 49% 43% 52% 17% 31%
Bustamante Dem. 34% 32% 36% 28% 64% 52%
McClintock Rep. 12% 11% 14% 13% 6% 9%
Camejo Green 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 5%
Huffington Ind. 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 1%
Other 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%
Black Californians, by contrast, opposed the recall 73%-27%. Non-Hispanic whites favored it 60%-40%.
"The conventional wisdom — that Hispanics vote as an ethnic bloc — turned out not to be true," said Dave Gilliard of Rescue California, a pro-recall group. "They split right down the middle."
In Washington, activists in both parties are pouring over the election results to figure out what happened — and whether it can be repeated in other states.
Overall, Hispanics cast 17% of the votes in the recall and 8% of the anti-Davis vote. Had they all supported Davis, the recall would have failed.
The Hispanic vote was especially surprising given Davis' aggressive efforts to win them over. This included signing a bill letting illegal immigrants get drivers' licenses, something he vetoed twice before.
It failed to excite Hispanics. A Los Angeles Times poll found that only 32% said it made them more likely to vote for Davis. 37% said it made no difference and 27% said it made them less likely to support Davis.
Times op-ed columnist Gregory Rodriguez said, "I'm sure that is not what Davis had expected — alienating large numbers of white, black and Asian voters just to split the Latino vote."
Also surprising was the poor showing of Bustamante. He barely won the Hispanic vote (52%) despite making ethnic pride a major part of his campaign.
Schwarzenegger got 31% of the Hispanic vote and state Sen. Tom McClintock, another Republican, got 9%. Taken together, 40% of California Hispanics voted for the GOP.
Those are big numbers for a party thought to have alienated Hispanics in the 1990s over immigration.
How did it happen? Democrats blame the state's (and nation's) economy, saying Hispanics were as fed up with it as anyone else.
"This was an electorate in a real anti-incumbent mood," said Nelson Reyneri, the Democratic National Committee's director of Hispanic outreach.
Gilliard agrees, but adds that it was Davis' own policies that undid him, like tripling the state car tax.
"That tax hike really hurt people in the middle and lower incomes" including a lot of Hispanics, he said.
Others say that explanation does not go far enough.
"If it was just about Davis, why didn't Bustamante get more of the Hispanic vote?" asked Steve Camarota of the Center for Immigration Studies.
The answer has to do with demographics, Camarota says. Almost half of California Hispanics are ineligible to vote, according to CIS' study of census figures.
Hispanic voters are more likely to be native-born, often with deep roots in the state. They're less likely to be swayed by ethnic issues, as the split on driver's licenses showed.
And like other voter groups, Hispanics start leaning Republican as they get wealthier.
"Latinos are not going to automatically vote for a Latino," the DNC's Reyneri said. "They're going to vote on the issues important to them."
Schwarzenegger seemed to understand that. His campaign focused on the state's faltering, overregulated economy.
He did tread carefully on immigration. He opposed a ballot initiative to bar state collection of racial data. He also supported in-state tuition for illegal immigrant students.
But he opposed Davis' driver's license bill. And he had supported a 1994 ballot measure to deny social services to illegal immigrants.
Neither stance doomed him with Hispanics.
Of course, Schwarzenegger may be a unique case. He is an immigrant himself, and his movie star fame gave him a major boost.
"His No. 1 asset was his name I.D.," Damas said.
Still, some see a lesson from the recall.
"The message here is don't pander," Gilliard said. "Treat Hispanics like any other voters."
I also not the "Asians" were not singled out. IMO, that's because they have almost completely adopted American culture.
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Celebrity election fluke or trend???
They'll take any block vote...
It's a shame they base their grab for power on people that can be hoodwinked. It's the same thing that Hitler did.
It doesn't say what they're pouring over the results...molasses? gravy?
Vote on replacement ballot All Men Women White Black Hispanic
Schwarzenneger Rep. 46% 49% 43% 52% 17% 31%
Bustamante Dem. 34% 32% 36% 28% 64% 52%
McClintock Rep. 12% 11% 14% 13% 6% 9%
Camejo Green 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 5%
Huffington Ind. 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 1%
Other 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%
Actual vote data for ALL California voters:
Replacement candidate for Gray Davis if recalled:
Arnold Schwarzenegger Rep 3,898,248 48.6 Cruz M. Bustamante Dem 2,541,568 31.7 Tom McClintock Rep 1,069,980 13.4 Peter Miguel Camejo Grn 222,121 2.8 Arianna Huffington Ind 44,760 0.6 Peter V. Ueberroth Rep 23,375 0.3 Larry Flynt Dem 16,089 0.3 Gary Coleman Ind 13,224 0.2 George B. Schwartzman Ind 11,408 0.2 Mary Cook Ind 10,424 0.2
Recall of Gray Davis:
Yes 4,595,235 55.3 No 3,723,296 44.7
Source: California Secretary of State
It's not like this article was written on the night of October 7th...
dvwjr
Don't idiot Republicans insult America and Americans of Latino origin by worrying that being too pro-America offends Americans of Latino origin?
"Mexican-Americans" have their hearts in Mexico and their stomachs here. Catering to the crowd that does not want to be Americans is treason IMO. The corrupt government of Mexico makes no secret that it is their policy to force their unwanted citizens out of Mexico and at the same time keep them loyal to Mexico's "nation without borders" a.k.a., the Mexican diaspora. All the while demanding that U.S. taxpayers pay the bills.
Our Republic suffers. Who benefits from this ILLEGAL immigrant form of slavery except for a few businessmen. Stop the BS about produce becoming very expensive and "Who would cut the grass, clean the hotel rooms?"
Almost everyday I drive through the farmland around Sacramento. I see no immigrants. I see machines harvesting the thousands of acres of tomatoes. One machine operator, one truck driver to take the open double trailers of tomatoes to market.
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An Eternal Verity by itself, but it needs an adjustment.
"And like other voter groups, [fill in the blank] start leaning Republican as they are forced to pay more and more taxes."
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